I was wrong. Twice. Democrat Barbara Bollier actually has a shot in Kansas Senate race
A year ago, I said Kathleen Sebelius was the Democrats’ only hope of competing for the U.S. Senate seat from Kansas. A few months later, I said Barbara Bollier’s only chance would be in a race against Republican Kris Kobach.
I was wrong. Twice. Shocking, I know.
Yes, Bollier would be a slight favorite if Kansas Republicans are reckless enough to nominate Kobach on Aug 4. But it’s now clear that Bollier can compete with any Republican nominee, and might actually win.
Shocking, I know.
Money is a key reason why. Bollier, like Democrats in other Senate races around the country, has raised an enormous amount of cash — $3.7 million in the latest reporting period, far more than her potential opponents are expected to take in.
Retiring Sen. Pat Roberts, a Republican, spent about $7.5 million in a tough race to protect the seat in 2014. Bollier could raise that much by Labor Day.
And because she faces no primary challenge, Bollier can save most of her money for the general election. She should have at least $2 million a month available this fall, likely more, in a state where media buys are relatively cheap.
But contributions are a lagging indicator. Money doesn’t create political success — it follows it. So donor cash isn’t the only reason for the Bollier bump.
Kobach’s wobbly campaign is not a surprise — he can’t get organized, his message is tired, even President Donald Trump appears skeptical of his candidacy. It’s his 2018 losing gubernatorial campaign on an endless loop.
Bob Hamilton? Leaking. Dave Lindstrom? Third and long. The rest of the field? Alone on the range.
U.S. Rep. Roger Marshall remains the mainstream GOP choice, but he hasn’t lit up the scoreboard, either. He remains largely unknown in this part of the state. His campaign strategy, such as it is, consists largely of attaching himself at the hip to Trump.
Perhaps that will work in the primary. In the general election? Not so fast.
Even Republican operatives admit the president is getting clobbered in new suburban polling. If educated, white-collar distaste for Trump is transferred to Marshall, his chances drop. Ask former U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder, who lost his seat two years ago mostly because voters in his 3rd Congressional District couldn’t stomach the president.
Marshall may hope to pivot to a more moderate theme if he’s the nominee. Nope. Voters are paying attention to those who enable Trump. And — you may have heard this — the president likes to tweet endorsements. Marshall would get one.
Wait. Hold on. Bollier is a Democrat, in Kansas. No Democrat has won a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932. They haven’t come close since 1974.
Bollier may have lots of money, but her campaign style can be, um, sedate. She won’t be able to follow the Joe Biden basement strategy, either. She isn’t that well-known.
She’s from Johnson County. Senate races are different from governor’s races. Trump will win Kansas. Obamacare politics, abortion politics, coronavirus mask politics lie ahead.
They’re all good reasons to be skeptical. If Bollier is to prevail, she’ll have to be part of a Democratic wave that dispatches Trump, holds the House and gains firm control of the Senate. The GOP is behind, but there’s no evidence of that kind of wave. Yet.
But I was wrong. Six months ago, I thought Bollier’s chances were fool’s gold — tempting, but fake. That view has changed. Bollier is the real thing.
