Is immigration reform the most important issue in Kansas and Missouri campaigns? No

U.S. Rep. Kevin Yoder has stumbled into a messy argument over immigration, making just about everyone mad.

First, Yoder was for separating immigrant families at the border. Then he was against it.

This month, he found money for 200 miles of border wall. “Thank you to Congressman Kevin Yoder!” President Donald Trump tweeted. “He secured $5 BILLION for Border Security.”

Then Yoder helped engineer a plan making it easier for victims of domestic abuse to claim asylum at the border, enraging the right-wing crowd.

Yoder may or may not be able to extricate himself from this self-created morass before Election Day. But here’s a more interesting question: Why is immigration a major issue in his race?

It isn’t as if his district is being overrun by foreigners who came here illegally. There are between 48,000 and 50,000 foreign-born people living in Johnson County, for example, but studies show three out of four are here legally.

Jobs can’t be an issue. Virtually anyone in Kansas or Missouri who wants a job can find one.

Some believe illegal immigration drives down wages. It isn’t true, but even if it were, there are others ways to boost salaries: raising the minimum wage, for example, or linking corporate tax cuts to salary increases. You don’t hear much talk about that.

Crimes allegedly committed by unauthorized immigrants are newsworthy and a problem. Again, though, there is evidence that immigrants who came to this country illegally are less likely to commit violent crimes than American citizens. And reasonable gun rules would do more to reduce crime than immigration reform. Not many candidates are campaigning on that.

Yet even a cursory glance at political commercials or literature reveals a near-obsession with immigration. Trump tweets about it constantly. It could be a central issue in the Missouri Senate race, which is likely to pit Claire McCaskill against Josh Hawley, who supports construction of a wall on the southern border.

And let’s not get started on Kris Kobach, the Republican candidate for Kansas governor who has made nativism the centerpiece of his entire political career. Why?

In an important piece on Vox.com, columnist Ezra Klein suggests immigration is a stand-in for what’s really bugging a crucial part of the electorate.

“America is changing, and fast,” he writes. “This is the core cleavage of our politics, and it reflects the fundamental reality of our era.”

Klein cites study after study confirming irreversible demographics: By mid-century, whites will be a minority in the United States. That worries millions of Americans, particularly older Americans who are reliable voters.

For them, opposing immigration can represent resistance to a broader cultural change that is clearly coming. Trump’s promise to make American great again is an appeal to that fear.

That fixation cheats Kansans and Missourians out of a real discussion about other issues: health care, education, transportation, economic policy, income inequality. Not much talk about those challenges, either.

Will it work? Maybe not. Kobach ran for Congress in Kansas’ 3rd District in 2004 on an explicit anti-immigrant platform, but was soundly rejected by voters who saw more than a hint of prejudice in his approach.

Still, 2018 is a different time, and Kobach is a candidate for governor.

He may prevail. Kevin Yoder may untangle his immigration mess. Trump may continue to demand a border wall he repeatedly said Mexico would pay for.

In a generation or two, though, we’ll recognize the immigration debate for what it is: an effort to stop the inevitable, while more important problems go unsolved.