The presidential campaign, 2016: Iowa and beyond
Iowa
▪ Republicans: Donald Trump or Ted Cruz likely will lead the pack following the caucuses Monday night. The winner will have bragging rights but no exceptionally clear path to victory. Keep an eye on the third-place finisher, who could break out of the also-ran crowd and spur donors and volunteers to swarm in for round two. That could be Marco Rubio, who, despite a late push into the Iowa ground game, stands a chance of surviving his mutually divisive assault on Cruz and attacks by a Jeb Bush super PAC.
▪ Democrats: Hillary Clinton still could prevail in the caucuses, though if the Bernie Sanders kids turn out in droves, it wouldn’t be a slam dunk in this extremely tight race. A Sanders victory would embarrass Clinton in Iowa (shades of 2008), but she would likely recover down the road.
New Hampshire
▪ Republican: The Granite State will be rockier for Cruz, so the first primary is Trump’s to lose. (How’s that for campaigning in poetry?) Rubio will be in the scrum for the title of viable “establishment” opponent of Trump (and Cruz). The centrist John Kasich will hope his all-out effort here will maintain his surprising traction. And Jeb Bush must make a strong showing to keep his little thread of hope intact. As for the distant finishers in this primary, a great shakeout could begin, giving them little hope for recovery down the line.
▪ Democrats: Sanders, of Vermont, has long held the expected edge among his New England neighbors, but Clinton could serve herself if she closes the gap somewhat.
South Carolina, Nevada and beyond
▪ Republicans: South Carolina (primary, Feb. 20), Nevada (caucus, Feb. 23): Trump predicts he will run the table. But not so fast. If Chris Christie gives up after New Hampshire and Bush flounders despite stronger ties to the Southern state, Rubio’s candidacy could earn a jolt. Cruz reportedly remains strong in the South, though the outlook for him is all uphill, especially if he falters in Iowa and as primaries head back north. The clock will be winding down toward decision day on an independent run by New Yorker Michael Bloomberg. He’ll be looking at Trump’s real ballot numbers and Hillary Clinton’s strength in the early contests.
▪ Super Tuesday will be March 1 in Texas and 13 other states (plus American Samoa), followed by some big contests in mid-March. Kansans caucus on March 5; Missouri’s primary is March 15. Each might prove consequential in a minor way because not even Trump will have amassed enough delegates yet to assure a convention majority. The march to Cleveland in July (and a majority of 1,237 delegates) continues throughout April, May and early June. Enjoy!
▪ Democrats: Clinton has clear political advantages in Nevada (caucus, Feb. 20) and South Carolina (primary, Feb. 27). But if Sanders draws considerable blood in the first two contests, her standing could suffer. Still, the long game favors Clinton, and perhaps the debates and the brutal campaign have toughened her resolve and softened her image. Surely Martin O’Malley will have gotten the message by now that, though his effort was noble and not wholly unnoticed, it’s time to bow out.
▪ If Sanders continues to stay too close for comfort and Clinton can’t shake the nagging negatives (the email thing), what then? The Democratic leadership will not likely warm up to Sanders, whose chances in a general election are slim to none. Hello, Joe Biden. Hello, John Kerry. Hello, big trouble.
This story was originally published January 30, 2016 at 7:00 AM with the headline "The presidential campaign, 2016: Iowa and beyond."