KC murder rate down 33% during Operation LeGend? Don’t believe Trump’s fact-free claims
There are lies, damned lies and statistics. And then there’s President Donald Trump.
On Monday, Trump claimed credit for reducing murders in Kansas City. He pointed to Operation LeGend, an effort here and in other cities to supplement local law enforcement with dozens of federal officers tasked with reducing crime.
“Since the beginning of Operation LeGend,” Trump said, “we have … reduced the murder rate in Kansas City, which is one of the cities we targeted, by one-third. Got it down 33%.”
The claim is wrong. And do not be fooled: It wasn’t an honest mistake. Rather, the president skewed the results of the operation, which was named for a 4-year-old boy murdered in Kansas City, for political reasons.
That should concern all of us. At some point, Kansas City will need to decide whether federal intervention in our police force worked, or if it didn’t. It will be impossible to make an informed judgment if politicians, from the president to the police chief, are allowed to warp the numbers for their own benefit.
Trump seems to be relying on a claim by the Kansas City Police Department, made Aug. 25, that overall violent crime had dropped 30.6% during the six weeks of Operation LeGend, compared with the previous six weeks.
Murders dropped 15.2% during that period, the Kansas City Police Department said. Trump was wrong.
But even if Trump had quoted the department accurately, the public would have been misled. Because, as it turns out, Kansas City’s homicide rate has actually gone up during Operation LeGend when you compare it to the rest of 2020, or to recent years.
There were 99 homicides in Kansas City between Jan. 1 and July 7, a rate of 3.7 homicides per week.
Since July 8, when Operation LeGend started, there have been 33 homicides, according to the department’s own figures. That’s an average of 4.2 murders a week.
The 2019 Kansas City homicide rate was 2.9 per week. It was 2.6 killings per week in 2018. The rate during Operation LeGend’s existence exceeds both.
Does this mean Operation LeGend has failed? No. There have been arrests and weapons seizures. There will be prosecutions. And during a year when Kansas City has seen homicide rates spike to intolerable levels, taking guns from criminals is a good thing.
It does mean that cherry-picking statistics, whether by the police department or the president of the United States, will distort our understanding of the impact of Operation LeGend. That misunderstanding, in turn, could make the fight against violent crime harder, not easier.
Maybe murders went up because it was hot in July and August. Maybe resources were used in the wrong places. Maybe it’s a small sample size.
Does Operation LeGend prove the need for more resources for the Kansas City Police Department? Who knows? We do know these questions can’t be answered if authorities are dishonest with themselves, or the public, about the facts.
Kansas Citians want Operation LeGend to succeed. So do we. The homicide rate is horrific, and is a deep stain on the community. Anything that can slow the carnage is welcome.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Attorney’s office said authorities have arrested 355 suspects, including 33 allegedly involved in homicides, as part of Operation LeGend. Those are welcome statistics.
But the effort will fail if it becomes further politicized or is seen as a path to partisan advantage. U.S. Attorney General William Barr lied about it. The Kansas City Police Department distorted its results. On Monday, President Trump lied about it. All did so for political reasons.
Kansas Citians should reject misinformation about the city’s most urgent issue. Then they can decide whether Operation LeGend has worked, and if the initiative could be part of a long-term solution.
This story was originally published September 2, 2020 at 5:00 AM.