Can we trust Missouri’s data for COVID-19 cases? The numbers keep changing
The state of Missouri said Tuesday there have been 24,629 cases of COVID-19 in the state, with 1,042 deaths.
Maybe. “These data are provisional and will change daily,” the state’s website explains.
Indeed, getting a firm handle on the impact of coronavirus in Missouri has been challenging. The New York Times reports that 24,580 Missourians have been sick, and 1,068 have died from the coronavirus. Worldometer, a website that aggregates COVID-19 data, says Missouri has had 24,444 cases with 1,074 deaths.
Some discrepancies in these numbers can be expected in a pandemic. But Missouri’s COVID-19 statistics have been repeatedly changed, potentially misleading the public and providing an inaccurate picture for local officials dealing with the crisis.
Last week, for example, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that the state’s running total showed 156 positive coronavirus cases on June 1, but state officials changed the number several times after it was first reported.
On Tuesday, the state’s website showed 231 COVID-19 cases on June 1. That’s nearly 50% more cases than originally reported.
Other dates show similar fluctuations.
The Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services says figures are changed as new data is examined and updated. There has been no attempt, the department says, to intentionally mislead the public.
A spokeswoman for the department provided a letter from Abigail Barker, a medical data expert at Washington University in St. Louis. “There is nothing nefarious or politically motivated happening here in Missouri,” the letter says.
But the letter also says the state’s data collection process may be falling short because of budget cuts. “The real story here,” Barker writes, “is the lack of sufficient data infrastructure that has been the product of decades of limited funding.”
That’s worrisome, too. Is Gov. Mike Parson getting the right information? The state, and cities and counties, continue to make critical decisions about whether to reopen the economy, send kids back to school, or even require Missourians to wear face masks. Those decisions must be made with as much accurate, up-to-date information as possible.
If the state needs to spend more on data collection, it should make that happen. Immediately.
We’ve said it before, but it bears repeating: COVID-19 isn’t over. In fact, there are more cases being reported in Missouri now, on average, than at any time since the virus erupted.
Missouri has had as many deaths per 100,000 residents as Florida, one study shows, and more deaths per 100,000 people than Texas and California (although Missouri deaths have dropped since the spring).
The state’s virus transmission rate is now about the same as Arizona’s. Hospitalizations are up.
These are all disturbing statistics, and they demand a full and appropriate response from state officials.
They must have complete, accurate data to make their decisions, and for the public to fully judge Missouri’s response. The state must ensure its COVID-19 reporting meets those standards.