Ask Rustin: Alex Gordon’s return, the lineup and the Royals’ road struggles

The Royals on pace to win 86 games. They are 38-33, and they return home to Kauffman Stadium on Friday night, and they are expected to get Alex Gordon back in the lineup by Saturday evening.

Gordon’s return will make the Royals closer to whole, and it also offers a slew of questions, so let’s get to the mailbag. This week’s podcast recommendation is “Everything’s Coming Up Podcast!” and the random album recommendation is Okkervil River’s “The Stage Name.”

The answer to this specific question, as it always is in questions like this one, is simple: It depends.

But in this case, the choices don’t seem too complicated. The Royals are currently carrying 13 pitchers, four outfielders (plus Whit Merrifield) and one backup infielder (Christian Colon).

To make room for Gordon, they will likely need to shed an outfielder or a pitcher. With Yordano Ventura finishing his eight-game suspension, the Royals could use an extra pitcher on the roster for depth. That likely means an outfielder goes back to Omaha. The caveat: That player will likely be back soon enough.

This is a good question. It’s not surprising the Royals are better at home, but the degree to which they are is bordering on absurd. They are 25-8 at home and 13-25 on the road. Some of this, of course, is because the Royals are built for their park, both offensively and defensively. This has been covered a lot.

The Royals don’t allow as many homers at home. They hit for a higher average. They’re scoring a ton more runs at home, too, which might just be a coincidence.

But just to make sure there wasn’t some schedule factors, I looked up the records of the teams the Royals have played at home and on the road.

Home

New York Mets (38-33)

Minnesota Twins (23-49)

Detroit Tigers (38-35)

Baltimore Orioles (41-30)

Washington Nationals (43-30)

Atlanta Braves (25-47)

Boston Red Sox (40-32)

Chicago White Sox (36-37)

Tampa Bay Rays (31-39)

Cleveland Indians (41-30)

Combined record: 356-362

Road

Houston Astros (37-36)

Oakland A’s (30-42)

Los Angeles Angels (31-42)

Seattle Mariners (36-37)

Cleveland Indians (41-30)

New York Yankees (35-36)

Chicago White Sox (36-37)

Minnesota Twins (23-49)

Baltimore Orioles (41-30)

New York Mets (38-33)

Combined record: 348-372

This is kind of back-of-the-napkin math here. So don’t take it too seriously. The Royals have already played more road games in Cleveland and Chicago, for instance. And many of the teams they’ve played at home are the same teams they’ve played on the road (the Mets, the Orioles, etc.) But it does appear we can rule out the schedule for why the Royals have been worse on the road. I will say one thing: That road series against the Angels looks pretty bad in retrospect.

The records will probably even out over the long haul. But for now, yes, it’s strange.

The former.

If the question is about trusting a pitcher, I think my answer is different than if you asked: Who will be the Royals’ best starter?

I don’t know if Edinson Volquez will be the best Royals starter the rest of the season, but I do think you can feel comfortable knowing what you’re going to get from him. His peripheral numbers (strikeouts, walks, FIP, homer rate) are all about the same as last season, when he posted a 13-9 record and 3.55 ERA. According to his FIP, he may have overachieved just a little bit last season, thanks in part to his big ballpark and defense. But when the season is over, I think you can expect Volquez to have an ERA in the high 3s and throw up a ton of quality starts.

In other words: The ceiling may be lower, but the floor is higher.

The answer to the second question: Will the current rotation be in place at the end of the season? I suppose the answer could be yes, but there will likely be plenty of movement in the second half. Chris Young could be in and out of the rotation. Kris Medlen is close to coming back. There could be injuries. The Royals could look at external options around the trade deadline (The market is pretty weak, though.) It’s hard to know.

A caveat: I think lineup construction is a little overrated, at least in terms of the attention we tend to give it on a daily basis. But here is one option:

1. Merrifield

2. Gordon

3. Cain

4. Hosmer

5. Perez

6. Morales

7. Orlando

8. Cuthbert

9. Escobar

You could also have Gordon, Merrifield, Hosmer and Cain at the top and that would make sense. All things being equal, Ned Yost prefers a right-left-right or left-right-left setup at the top and in the middle of his order. Either of those lineups would do.

This story was originally published June 24, 2016 at 11:05 AM.