Forget the presidential race for now. Let’s focus on what Kansas voters will decide | Opinion

With less than two weeks to go until the 2024 general election, political junkies have laser focused on the presidential race.

Local superfans of democracy might want to widen that view. A host of Kansas races, candidates and stories will define at least the next two years of politics in the Sunflower State, for better or for appallingly worse. Here are five to keep watch for as we barrel toward Nov. 5.

State board of education

No one pays attention to the Kansas Board of Education until it embarrasses us. It did so roughly 20 years ago, with members lambasting the teaching of evolution.

Well, The Kansas City Star Editorial Board sounded the alarm on Oct. 9: “Four of its current members are conservative Republicans who have campaigned against ‘wokeness’ in public education. Three moderates who served as a counterweight — Deena Horst (R-Salina), Ann Mah (D-Topeka) and Jim McNiece (R-Wichita) — are leaving the board. Five seats overall are up for election in November. Some observers fear a right-wing takeover which could turn the policymaking board into yet another culture war battleground that ill-serves the state’s young people.”

In other words, we could be in for a Kansas version of recent drama seen in Oklahoma, where Superintendent Ryan Walters has plunged the state’s classrooms into culture war battles. Sources I’ve spoken with over the past couple of months suggest that the board will almost certainly veer conservative.

Count me skeptical that most Kansans want that, but I could be wrong.

Republican supermajority

The biggest single question when it comes to the Kansas Statehouse is whether the GOP keeps its supermajorities in the Legislature. Democrats have had their eye on this prize for most of the year, and it certainly seems possible.

Republicans hold an 85-40 majority in the House and a 29-11 majority in the Senate, according to the National Conference on State Legislatures. That means breaking the supermajority in the House would require Democrats to pick up two seats. Doing so in the Senate would take three Democratic wins.

Matters become complicated when you actually game out the paths, however. Recall that last session we saw one Democrat largely voting with Republicans, and a couple of Republicans voting with Democrats on certain hot-button social issues. The Democrat in question, Marvin Robinson, has died, and one of those two Republicans won’t be on the ballot. Depending on the outcomes of other races, then, Democrats could have a workable minority with only one seat switch in the House, or they might need to flip three or four depending on the outcomes of other races.

Speaking of which …

Hutchinson race for House

State Rep. Jason Probst, a Hutchinson Democrat, has been a high-profile legislator for his party. He’s also the westernmost elected member of his party at the Statehouse.

That means he’s been a prime target for Republicans this year, and the former journalist has written about the experience on his Substack blog.

“If you think our system is broken, that there’s too much money in politics — know that the Kansas Chamber and (the Koch family’s Americans for Prosperity) are the biggest and they are paying for and running my opponent’s campaign,” he wrote Oct. 10. “These groups have never given Hutchinson the time of day until they saw a chance to use our community for their gain. And my opponent couldn’t find Hutchinson on a map before he agreed to do a favor for his ‘friends’ when his bosses couldn’t find a local candidate they liked.”

Probst is running against Kyler Sweely, whose Hutchinson residency was challenged back in June. The grand total of words from the candidate on his rather bare-bones campaign website appear to be these: “I have dedicated my life to serving our country and promise to work for YOU every day as your representative in Topeka. I am committed to making Hutchinson the best place to start a business, grow a career, and raise a family.”

OK, then.

Marijuana and Medicaid

We hear the questions before each legislative session, and we’ve heard them this year, too. When will legislators legalize marijuana, medical or otherwise, and expand the Medicaid program?

The simple answer is when voters elect lawmakers willing to do both things.

My friend and compatriot in the opinion writing trade, Joel Mathis, highlighted this very issue in a recent column. An Emerson College poll commissioned by the Midwest Newsroom shows that, in Joel’s words: “Fifty-seven percent of Kansas voters said their representatives are looking out for themselves. Just 20% said officials have the state’s best interests in mind.”

A whopping 73% of Kansans want medical marijuana, while 56% support legalizing recreational use.

But here’s the thing. We all know this. Anyone who has followed Kansas politics or read these columns or spoken to their friends and neighbors knows this. Ditto for Medicaid expansion. But until Kansans vote for the lawmakers who will give them what they claim to want, they will remain frustrated.

Turnout, turnout, turnout

I admit this item might have a tiny bit to do with the presidential race. But we saw back in 2022 that Kansas voter participation correlates to surprising election outcomes.

A stunning number of folks turned out to vote on a constitutional amendment that would have allowed legislators to ban abortion. Three months later, however, many of those same voters didn’t make a return to the ballot box. This led to a contradictory situation in which Kansans had voted by an 18-percentage-point margin to preserve abortion rights but also elected a virulently anti-choice Legislature.

“Kansans between the ages of 18 and 29 proved they could wield political power when 130,000 of them showed up to vote on the abortion referendum in August 2022,” Kansas Reflector editor Sherman Smith wrote last year. “But 48,000 of those same voters stayed home three months later, with the governor’s office, congressional seats and legislative races at stake, according to one analysis.”

Turnout will make all the difference in Kansas politics going forward. As always, it’s up to the folks who show up and make their voices heard.

This story was originally published October 25, 2024 at 5:07 AM.