Joe Biden vs. Bernie Sanders: Iowa caucuses may be just the beginning of long battle

On paper, Joe Biden appears to be maintaining a modest, if wobbly lead for the Democrats’ presidential nomination this year. He leads nationally among Democrats, as he has for the last year, even before his April announcement.

Biden is ahead of the relentless Sen. Bernie Sanders by some six points nationally, a margin that could evaporate without wins.

However, this isn’t a national race yet. It’s a four-state warm-up sprint that has previously foretold the ultimate nominee in lopsided fields with heavy favorites. But 2020 is different, very different. Biden had a modest lead over Sanders in next week’s Iowa caucuses. But some polls now show the senator from Vermont surging, with Biden also trailing in New Hampshire, which holds its primary the following week.

Biden’s lead in Nevada is within Sanders’ reach, especially as he builds strength within organized labor. Only in South Carolina does the ex-vice president own a commanding margin.

Since 1976, the winner of the Iowa caucuses has gone on to the Democratic nomination about 75% of the time.

This time, the Democratic field remains large and old; all the front-runners are in their 70s. All are also well-funded, meaning the field is likely to stay large longer.

In the last three months of 2019, Biden had his best fundraising quarter so far, collecting $22.7 million. But that was only two-thirds of Sanders’ $34.7 million haul. And Biden was $2 million behind even Pete Buttigieg, another Democratic insurgent tapping into the party’s unhappiness with its political establishment, much as Donald Trump did within the GOP in 2016.

All three of them, plus Elizabeth Warren, will last longer than competitors in previous cycles. Party leaders will argue such competition produces a stronger nominee eventually.

But it also creates deeper political divisions that must be healed more quickly for the general election. It tests the generosity and endurance of donors. And it consumes precious campaign time, while the even better-funded Trump plans his own offensives free of significant internal party strife.

The dangerous wrinkle this time is Michael Bloomberg, the multi-billionaire who’s skipping the early states to run on a parallel frontage road that merges with the existing field come Super Tuesday, March 3. On that day, 15 states from Maine to California pick 40% of the July convention’s delegates.

Bloomberg has already spent more than $200 million building out a political operation and blanket advertising that has vaulted him from zero support at Thanksgiving to 9% now. His goal is to be the first Jewish president and the next billionaire chief executive.

A strong Super Tuesday showing could push Biden into a real front-runner’s status. However, good results for Sanders and/or Bloomberg would reveal how thin support is for the gaffe-prone Biden, the familiar old shoe who has yet even to win the endorsement of his former political partner, Barack Obama.

In Iowa, Biden is playing to his perceived strong suit: He’s a safe, known commodity who has been in national politics since Buttigieg was in fourth grade; he has strong support from black voters, and he can defeat Trump.

Biden’s closing ad: “Every day he’s president, Donald Trump poses a threat to America and the world. We have to beat him. Joe Biden is the strongest candidate to do it…This is no time to take a risk…”

If you’re a Democrat, you know what that last sentence means: Sanders and Warren are hard left, and Buttigieg is an untested kid.

Yes, Bloomberg has switched parties a few times, and the former New York City mayor took a hard line policing Gotham. But his 2020 pitch is based on proven managerial competence (see $55 billion fortune and three terms running the nation’s most populous city.) Also, he’s not quite as obnoxious as fellow New Yorker Trump.

In an age of television, Bloomberg’s big problem is a little one, seriously. Modern Americans like their commanders in chief on the tall side. Nine of the last 11 presidents have been six feet or taller. None under 5 feet 10 inches. Bloomberg is 5-foot-8. That makes him 7 inches shorter and five years older than the Republican incumbent, a glaring stage difference.

But the real nightmare for Democratic leaders is Sanders, who makes no bones about his democratic socialism — free public college, Medicare for All, higher taxes, $15 minimum wage. Sanders also rants against the country’s wealth inequality. He himself owns three homes, a disqualifying crime when we were talking about Republicans John McCain or Mitt Romney.

Last week, Sanders claimed, conveniently, that the total costs of his government expansions could not be estimated. After suffering an October heart attack, Sanders continues to campaign vigorously. A president-elect Sanders would be 79 on Inauguration Day, making him older entering office than every other president leaving office.

The similarities between Trump and Sanders are intriguing. Both are native New Yorkers (Trump from Queens, Sanders Brooklyn). Both men have fervently loyal political bases (Sanders left-leaning Democrats, especially the young. Trump’s evangelicals and social conservatives, especially seniors).

Trump was a lifelong Democratic donor until turning Republican for the 2016 campaign. Sanders is not even a Democrat. He becomes one for the purpose of primaries every four years and would be the country’s first “independent” president.

Although of Jewish heritage, Sanders is not observant. Raised as a Presbyterian, Trump is more of a holiday church-goer. Neither has military experience, like two of the last three presidents, both Democrats.

In the spirit of the 21st century, both are admired by supporters as more genuine than traditional politicians, telling it like it is bluntly, even crudely.

The key general election question would be if the country’s historically center-right presidential voters could be comfortable with the unknown of a grumpy, left-leaning career elected official promising vast spending increases of undetermined size?

Or if they could set aside their discomfort with a known egotistical boor who’s overseen a genuine economic rebirth creating millions of new jobs, historically low unemployment and a refreshed military?

Normally, Americans have gone with the known incumbent. But as you may have noticed these past few years, these are not normal times.

This story was originally published January 28, 2020 at 4:00 AM with the headline "Joe Biden vs. Bernie Sanders: Iowa caucuses may be just the beginning of long battle."