Could Joe Biden change the presidential campaign with a historic promise?

Joe Biden, who is 77 years old now, made it clear the other day he has no plans to serve only four years if elected president.

“I don’t have plans on one term,” said Biden, who would be 82 at the end of it.

Note the politician’s careful phrasing: “no plans.” Thoughts, perhaps. But no plans.

There’s been a lot of recent buzz about that. Such a vow now would be a thoroughly dumb idea, clearly. Why presumptuously give up something today that you don’t actually have? Later next year, however, that kind of move could prove brilliant.

Consider this scenario: Biden has been the front-runner for the Democratic nomination since months before he even announced. He still is, nationally. He’s a known commodity with about 96% name recognition, having been in federal politics since that Indiana mayor was in elementary school.

Biden is like an old shoe, scuffed but comfortable on the mind, unlike the Republican incumbent for most Americans. Never underestimate an incumbent, especially an incumbent named Donald Trump.

Trump reeks of turmoil. And anger. His people love that. But in 2016, his people comprised barely 46% of voters, 2% less than what’s-her-name, who did underestimate Trump. Too many of her votes came from the same places. Trump got his in just the right places to acquire 57% of the Electoral College. He won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by 77,000 votes combined.

Those three states provided 46 of his 304 electoral votes. Without them, he’d have had 258, 12 shy of a majority. And she’d have had 273, three more than necessary to put those feuding Clintons back in the White House.

Let’s say Biden gets the Democratic Party’s nod in Milwaukee come July. Or gets close enough in the still-splintered field that a dramatic gesture could put him over the top, especially on a second ballot when the establishment’s super-delegates can vote.

Yes, Biden has failed at this twice before. He’s been shaky at times. A little too hands-on with the ladies. And goofy. He’s misplaced himself in another state. He concocts made-up stories about military heroes to suit the moment. He swears. His debate answers can wander like an old man seeking the light switch at midnight.

That doesn’t measure up to the Republican in 2016 boasting of grabbing a woman’s genitalia. But those things don’t seem to matter anymore. Even a major heart attack doesn’t faze Bernie Sanders’ campaign. Above all, Biden is familiar and non-threatening.

His party opponents are not. New can be refreshing. But also scary. Strange to say that Sanders at 79 next year is new after a lifelong career in one elected office after another. At 70, Elizabeth Warren is the youngster of front-runners. But their radically left ideas are new to the eyes of mainstream voters, who tend to drift toward the center each Leap Year November.

Then, there’s the latecomer, Michael Bloomberg, who’s belonged to both parties at one time or another. He’s another New Yorker in his seventies, richer even than Trump. And a few months older than Biden. The ex-mayor has spent more than $200 million in his first month of candidacy and jumped from 0 to 5% in some polls.

The crowded Democratic field will thin a little after the Iowa caucuses Feb. 3 and the New Hampshire primary the next week. But successful fundraising will keep a fair number in the battle with its front-loaded schedule. It’s quite possible we could see three different victors in the first three contests: Midwesterner Pete Buttigieg in Iowa, New Englander Sanders in New Hampshire and Biden in South Carolina.

A lot can change in heated election campaigns. That’s what they’re for, to weed out the weak and reward the loudest. A foreign crisis or domestic terrorism could shatter expectations. We can’t know now what these competitors, or more likely, Trump’s opposition research team, is digging up on Democrats, namely Biden and his son.

So, how could Biden stand out in that crowd? A couple of things: He could promise to pick a woman as his running mate, someone well-spoken but who would not outshine him.

It didn’t help Walter Mondale in 1984 to choose Rep. Geraldine Ferraro. They took one state in a Ronald Reagan landslide. John McCain won 22 states with Sarah Palin in 2008 but only 173 electoral votes.

Timed right, vowing to balance the ticket would be quite popular in primary season and appeal to suburban women, who are drifting away from the GOP. Of course, any Democrat could do that, but — oh, look! — Trump couldn’t match that move. Not without dividing his conservative base, which is invested in Vice President Mike Pence.

Then, Biden could grab at least a week’s worth of free media in a general election campaign by suddenly making the dramatic announcement he says he currently has no plans to make. You know, he’d say in a folksy way, our nation is in crisis. We have been seriously divided for four years by a chief executive who lies and spreads division for his own ends. He’s the laughingstock of foreign leaders. Americans have actually attacked each other over a hat or political button.

That’s not the kind of politics of John Kennedy or Reagan, he’d say, or of Joe Biden. If I receive the honor of becoming president, I am going to dedicate my presidency to restoring peace and civility to our country and our politics. That is so important I am announcing tonight that, if elected, I will serve only one term and spend that entire time doing my very best to reunite our people.

Simultaneously, such talk diminishes Trump, offering an end to his nonstop turmoil while tempting the next generation of ambitious Democratic politicians with a guaranteed vacancy in four years. And it would assuage much concern about Biden’s advanced age, especially if Biden’s running mate is in her fifties with a credible executive presence.

Imagine Trump’s tweet after that.

This story was originally published December 17, 2019 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Could Joe Biden change the presidential campaign with a historic promise?."