Tornadoes, giant hail possible west of Kansas City as severe weather threat ramps up
Severe storms are expected Monday evening into overnight across the Kansas City region, and while that’s forecasters’ main concern, the National Weather Service is also watching a conditional chance for a few thunderstorms to pop up near the Kansas-Missouri line mid-afternoon.
There is a low, but not zero, probability that storms will form between 3 and 4 p.m., Jonathan Kurtz, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill, said in a video briefing. But if they do, hail, wind and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concerns.
The greatest concern is for Monday evening into early Tuesday, when all severe weather hazards are expected.
Portions of northeastern Kansas into southeast Nebraska and far northwest Missouri are under a moderate risk (Level 4 of 5) of severe weather.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for parts of northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska, generally west and north of the Kansas City area.
The watch is labeled a “Particularly Dangerous Situation,” meaning forecasters see an elevated risk for strong tornadoes as supercell thunderstorms rapidly develop and track northeast through the afternoon, the center said.
Forecasters said conditions could produce intense tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging winds.
Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a rather large area, which includes Kansas City and northeast Missouri, under an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe weather.
With the initial supercell thunderstorms in northeast Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri, there is a potential for hail that is greater than 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds of 70 to 80 mph, and heavy rains.
The tornado concern is the greatest with the initial supercells in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. There is a chance a few spin-up tornadoes could briefly form along a line of storms as it moves into the rest of Missouri and continues east overnight, Kurtz said.
Storms are expected to develop between 3 and 6 p.m. in northeast Kansas and far northwest Missouri, then spread toward St. Joseph and west of Interstate 35 from 6 to 8 p.m. Forecasters expect the line to reach most of the Kansas City area and toward Kirksville from 8 to 10 p.m., then push into central Missouri between 10 p.m. and midnight.
The timing of the storms could shift an hour or two in either direction, depending on how they develop and move.
A flood watch remains in effect through 10 a.m. Tuesday. Rainfall rates from the storm are expected to be between 1 and 3 inches an hour, with the strongest storms passing through in the evening and overnight. River flooding concerns are increasing.
This story was originally published May 18, 2026 at 3:01 PM.
