Severe storms possible Sunday night near Kansas City; Monday could be worse
Showers and thunderstorms could move into the Kansas City area late Sunday night, with a few possibly turning severe. But Monday is the bigger concern, as a stalled cold front could help set the stage for dangerous storms, including the risk of tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service.
Temperatures on Sunday are expected to climb to around 88 degrees, well above the normal of 75 degrees typically for mid-May in Kansas City.
Storms will likely develop late Sunday into early Monday morning, with a few strong to severe storms possible, primarily across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri, the weather service said. The primary threat will be damaging winds, although large hail is also possible.
A flash flood watch is in effect through Tuesday morning for northwest Missouri, where 2 to 8 inches of rain fell Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. That watch may need to be expanded to other areas as additional rounds of moderate to heavy rain are expected Sunday and Monday nights, the weather service said.
The weather should stay mostly quiet Sunday afternoon as a layer of warm air, called a cap, may keep storms from forming across most of the Kansas City area.
A few storms could pop up in north-central Kansas late in the afternoon. These storms may merge into a large storm complex and then into a line of storms as a cold front moves east Sunday night.
If the line holds strong into northeastern Kansas and western Missouri, damaging winds and maybe a conditional tornado threat are possible, the weather service said. Even as the main line passes, rain showers may continue into early Monday.
The Storm Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, has placed parts of far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri at an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5) of severe weather. Meanwhile, areas just north of Kansas City are at a slight risk (Level 2 of 5), while the metro area is at a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5).
Damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes possible
A cold front is expected to stall over central Kansas Monday morning, setting the stage for a potentially more significant severe weather setup later in the day. Large hail, tornadoes, and damaging hail are possible.
The weather service said there’s uncertainty about how Monday will involve, and a lot will depend on whether a warm layer of air or cap breaks in the afternoon, allowing storms to form.
“If the cap breaks in the afternoon, supercells capable of all hazards will be possible” from eastern Kansas to northwest Missouri, the weather service said. Forecasters said the tornado threat could increase in the evening as winds strengthen and storms begin to merge.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of central and northeast Kansas under a moderate risk (Level 4 of 5) of severe weather, while eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri, including the Kansas City metro, are under an enhanced risk (Level 3 of 5).
