Kansas City’s dry, unusually warm weekend masks a bigger issue
Sunny, mid-70s days are rare treats for Kansas City in November, but this stretch of unusually warm, dry weather is fueling a growing problem: the area is slipping deeper into drought.
“It certainly has been dry of late ... in fact, since September 1st, many areas have received 3 to 5+ inches less than normal,” the National Weather Service in Kansas City said.
In the metro, only 3.69 inches of rain have fallen since September, according to data from the NOAA Regional Climate Centers. That’s well below the 8.21 inches that are considered normal for that period.
“That lack of rain, coupled with the frequent, very warm (for the season) temperatures, has caused large portions of Missouri and eastern Kansas to enter Moderate to Severe Drought,” the weather service said.
For the year, Kansas City has seen 31.68 inches of rain, about 5 inches below the average of 36.58 inches, according to weather data.
There is little relief in sight over the next few days, and the chances of rain next week remain uncertain, the weather service said.
Weekend temperatures well above average in KC
The weather this weekend is expected to be relatively quiet, dry, and warm, according to the weather service.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-70s on Friday and in the low to mid-70s on Saturday. Kansas City’s temperatures typically reach a high of around 54 degrees in mid-November.
A dry cold front is expected to move through the Plains on Saturday afternoon. This might bring a brief period of increased wildfire risk, as drier air moves in and relative humidity drops to around 30%, the weather service said.
“Fortunately, wind speeds are not expected to be excessive, up to around 15 mph sustained,” the weather service said.
The western and northwestern parts of the region are at greater risk of elevated fire danger.
Due to the cold front, temperatures will cool slightly but remain above average. Temperatures in the metro will be in the low 60s on Sunday, according to the weather service.
Rain chances in forecast next week
The weather service predicts a change in the weather next week, with the possibility of rain or storms.
“Rain chances return to the forecast Monday, but tending to be on the lower end and far from what many would prefer given the dry conditions lately,” the weather service said.
Rain chances for the metro are 20% after 12 p.m. on Monday, dropping to 10% after 12 a.m. Tuesday, according to the forecast.
The weather service cautioned that it’s difficult to put too much weight in any specific time frames for appreciable precipitation chances, given how forecasts have trended the last few days.
The weather service noted that just a few days ago, forecast discussions centered on precipitation for this weekend. That was then pushed back to early next week, and most recent trends suggest “more towards mid- to late week for best appreciable precipitation chances.”
The shifting forecast is due to weather systems moving around the western U.S., which will influence where and when precipitation is likely to occur.
A series of slow-moving storm systems will move through, the first of which is expected to cross the northeastern Plains early in the workweek. The weather service said this one is likely to bring little to no rain to Kansas City.
A second system is expected to dive further south into Baja California before drifting eastward.
“This is the system to watch for any meaningful precipitation, as it appears strong and would much more readily” draw deep moisture up from the Gulf, the weather service said. Over half an inch of rain is possible in some scenarios.
However, with weather systems more than five days out, their timing and track could still change, especially given that previous forecasts for rain this far out often dried up as the time drew closer, the weather service said.
Aside from the rain chances, temperatures are expected to trend toward normal for much of next week.
