Severe weather risk grows south of Kansas City metro
The risk of severe weather has increased for southern portions of the Kansas City forecast area Monday, according to the National Weather Service.
The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center expanded the areas at moderate risk of severe weather to include southeastern Kansas and southwest Missouri, including Fort Scott, Kansas, and Butler, Missouri. The moderate risk is the fourth level on the Storm Prediction Center’s five-point scale.
The moderate risk of severe weather stretches from far northern Texas, across much of central and eastern Oklahoma, to southwest Kansas and the Ozarks of Missouri.
The National Weather Service said the upgrade and expansion of the areas under the moderate threat of severe weather was due to hail and wind probabilities.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City metro and surrounding areas remain under an enhanced risk of severe weather, the third level on its five-point scale.
“There remains uncertainty in how storms will evolve, but all severe hazards are possible, and we’re encouraging everyone to stay well aware of the weather as you make your way through the day,” the National Weather Service in Kansas City said. “Ensure you have wireless emergency alerts turned on in your phone and watch local media and utilize NOAA Weather Radio for updates.”
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Multiple rounds of storms possible
The National Weather Service in Springfield said strong to severe storms are expected Monday afternoon and into the night.
“There may be multiple rounds of storms through the entire period,” the weather service said. “Just because one storm moves through does not mean your risk is over!”
In the Kansas City area, cloud cover may hinder the development of severe weather in the afternoon, according to the National Weather Service in Kansas City. If the clouds clear, more robust storms could develop.
The first round of storms will arrive mid-afternoon, according to video weather briefing by the weather service.
Damaging winds and hail are likely. Tornadoes will be possible if discrete supercells develop, the weather service said.
Late afternoon, evening storms in KC forecast
Another round of storms is expected to develop in east-central Kansas between 3 and 5 p.m. and continue into the night, the weather service said.
The weather service said that some long-track storms are possible initially, but it is uncertain if they will remain discrete storms to and east of the Kansas and Missouri state line. Discrete storms develop independently, which allows them to mature and intensify without competing for space and energy with other storms.
The storms are expected to consolidate into line segments, which could produce damaging winds of 60 to 70 mph. The weather service said some lines of storms could have wind above 70 mph. Large hail will also be possible.
The line of storms could reach the Kansas City metro area between 9 and 10 p.m., according to the video briefing.
There is a “conditional threat for short-lived tornadoes to develop along leading edge of line segments,” the weather service said.
Heavy rainfall may lead to flooding in urbanized areas and fast-rising creeks and streams that typically flood.
Showers, storms to linger into Tuesday morning
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger into Tuesday and exit the area by the afternoon, the weather service said. The severe weather threat is likely to end by morning, though a few stronger storms may still exist.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rainfall is possible across a widespread area. The weather service said some areas might see as much as 3 to 4 inches of rain.
According to the weather service, between 1.5 and 2 inches of rain is possible in the metro area.
