Baseball-sized hail, tornadoes: Details on Kansas City’s severe weather threat
Severe weather is possible Monday afternoon and evening in the Kansas City area. However, according to the National Weather Service, a key ingredient needed to trigger the storms might be missing.
“It’s uncertain if storms will develop during this time frame, but if they do, severe weather is likely with very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes,” the weather service said.
Because of the uncertainty, the Kansas City area is under a “conditional” risk of severe weather, the weather service said.
A layer of warm, stable air, known as a cap or lid, is over the area and could hinder the development of thunderstorms, the weather service said on social media. It’s uncertain that the cap will break, allowing the storms to develop.
If the cap breaks in the afternoon, the area still lacks a force to “kick start” the storms, but the weather service said it won’t take much for storms to fire up.
If storms develop, the environment will heavily favor supercell thunderstorms, with very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes possible, the weather service said.
Supercells are dangerous rotating storms that resemble tall storm clouds with anvils or elongated tops. Supercell thunderstorms can last for several hours in the right environmental conditions.
Because of the conditional threat of severe weather, the National Weather Service has placed Kansas City and parts of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri under an enhanced risk of severe weather, the third level on the Storm Prediction Center’s five-point scale.
Scattered to widespread storms in Kansas City
Once a cold front starts moving southward into the area Monday evening and overnight, storms become more likely and are expected to develop along the front.
“While the severe weather potential decreases with time during the overnight, large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes remain possible,” the weather service said.
The weather service said there is a potential for hail to be baseball-sized or even larger for several hours after sunset.
The cold front is expected to stall south of the Kansas City area across southern Missouri into southeastern Kansas or northern Oklahoma.
“This front remains the focus for new storms Tuesday evening and overnight,” the weather service said. “Overall, the heaviest rain has trended south but our southern zones, generally south of (U.S. 50), could still see heavy rain and possibly flooding.”
The weather service said the ground in areas south of the Missouri River remains fairly saturated after last week’s heavy rains and flooding. Multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible Tuesday into Wednesday.
“The unsettled pattern will continue through late in the work week with multiple additional chances for showers and storms,” the weather service said. “Overall, the threat of severe weather looks low later in the week as we just don`t seem to be able to build the instability back like we will see (Monday) afternoon.”
This story was originally published April 28, 2025 at 8:54 AM.
