Dreaming of a white Christmas in Kansas City? What forecast, history says about the odds
With Christmas less than a week away and a burst of cold weather coming later this week, people might wonder if Kansas City will see snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
They’ll likely have to keep dreaming. Historically, the odds are not in Kansas City’s favor.
Kansas City has had only 27 white Christmases in its history, according to data that goes back to 1893, said Linda Lam, lead meteorologist at The Weather Company. The 30-year average, which resets every 10 years, shows that chance is between 20% and 25%.
“So about, you know, a one in five chance, I guess, each year of having that white Christmas,” Lam said.
A white Christmas is defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
“In the movies, there’s always pictures of snow falling, but it doesn’t have to snow on Christmas Day,” Lam said.
If it doesn’t snow until after the measurement is taken, usually around 6 or 7 a.m., that doesn’t qualify as a white Christmas — even if it snows later, Lam said.
White Christmases in Kansas City
The last time the metro had an inch or more of snow on Christmas morning was in 2022.
Snow from a winter storm system fell in the days before the holiday, but frigid colds, with overnight lows below zero, kept the snow from melting, Lam said.
Last year was the opposite. Warm temperatures persisted in the days leading up to the holiday.
“It was a brown Christmas for most of the U.S.,” Lam said. “If you look at the U.S. as a whole, it was the least covered white Christmas across the lower 48 states since records began. That was kind of crazy that you can go from one extreme to the other.”
The snowiest Christmas morning was back in 1918, when there was 10 inches of snow on the ground.
More recently, 6 inches of snow was on the ground in 2009, making it the fifth snowiest white Christmas in Kansas City.
“Kansas City is an interesting location, though, because it can get those powerful polar fronts, the arctic air that comes through, and if you have just enough moisture, you can get some decent snow,” Lam said. “So it definitely can happen.”
What does forecast say?
This year, Kansas City’s forecast is not too promising for snow.
Lam said that although a cold blast is coming through later this week, a warming trend is on its heels.
“For the Kansas City area, it’s looking that it’s going to be too warm and we’re not forecasting snow at this point for Christmas in Kansas City,” Lam said.
Lam suggested looking on the plus side — it will not be freezing.
“At least it’ll be a little bit mild; you can get outside and maybe enjoy it,” Lam said.
The National Weather Service in Kansas City said temperatures could reach the 50s by Christmas Day.
The white Christmas forecast will be updated daily, so while the odds are not favorable, Lam said they’ll keep a close eye on things.
Will weather impact holiday travel?
For those getting a jump on holiday travel and heading out on Friday, Lam said they should be aware of a quick-moving system that will bring a little bit of snow, some wind and rain to some areas in the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the interior Northeast and the coastal areas in the Northeast.
“There could be some travel delays there,” Lam said.
For those leaving this weekend, most of the country looks pretty decent, Lam said. However, there are spots where travel concerns exist on Saturday and Sunday in the Northwest, from northern California to Oregon, where the next storm system is coming.
The forecast for early next week is a bit uncertain. Some areas of rain and snow showers could occur in the central part of the country, beginning as early as Sunday night and continuing into Christmas Day.
“So areas including Kansas City, there could be some showers around early next week, but the details on that have been a little bit in flux,” Lam said.
Areas south of Kansas City, like southern Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas, could see rain showers, while the Great Lakes area could see snow.
“So if you’ve got some flexibility with travel, maybe the weekend might be the time to go if you have that option, so you don’t have to worry about weather delays,” Lam said. “We all know how those can stack up around the holidays. Even if it’s not at your airport, it could still impact you.”
An active weather pattern likely will occur between Christmas and New Year’s Day.
“I would definitely recommend anyone that does have travel plans to check back with the forecast as it’s still coming together,” Lam said.
