Are men or women more interested in election? New poll finds biggest gap since 2008
A new poll revealed a major gap in voter interest between men and women — and could be crucial in this year’s tight presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, experts said.
For the past four presidential elections, NBC polls found men and women to be within one percentage point of each other on election enthusiasm, according to a Nov. 3 analysis shared with McClatchy News by pollsters Bill McInturff and Jeff Horwitt.
In 2008 and 2020, men were up by a point in election interest; in 2012 and 2016, it was women who were more interested, the analysis found.
The latest poll, however, shows women up by six percentage points — 80% women to 74% men. With the gender gap reflecting in voting patterns, this could give insight to voter turnout and offer an early clue as to how the race will pan out, according to experts.
“If Harris wins (Nov. 5), this will be a big reason why,” American political analyst Dave Wasserman said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 and has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
According to the poll, 57% of women back Harris, compared to 40% of men. Meanwhile, 58% of men support Trump compared with 41% of women.
As of 2:44 p.m. on Nov. 5, women outpace men in voter turnout, 54% to 43.8%, according to data from the University of Florida’s Election Lab.
“There’s just simply more women in the electorate and they turn out to vote more,” Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told ABC News. “If you add in their preference for Harris over Trump, this should be very good news for Harris.”
Election interest for other groups
The survey also found Black voters, Latino voters and 18- to 34-year-olds behind the national average of 77% in election interest.
Seventy-five percent of Black voters reflect interest in the election, and it drops by nearly 10 percentage points with Latino voters, the poll found. Young voters are especially lagging, with only 52% of 18- to 34-year-olds showing interest.
Because many of these groups are historically seen as reliable voting blocs for Democrats, their lack of interest could also be telling in a close election, experts said.
This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 3:25 PM with the headline "Are men or women more interested in election? New poll finds biggest gap since 2008."
