Why does Missouri say legalizing abortion costs $51K? Behind Amendment 3’s fiscal note
The 2024 election has officially begun in Missouri. Excused absentee voting started Sept. 24, meaning residents are already weighing in on a spate of impactful issues — including whether to restore abortion rights in the state.
Amendment 3, which would overturn Missouri’s 2022 abortion ban and enshrine reproductive rights in the state’s constitution, has faced an uphill battle to get on the ballot in its current form.
Among the segments that faced legal challenges is the fiscal note, a required section of ballot initiatives that provides voters an estimate of the financial costs and benefits for state and local entities. Here’s the one that ended up on Amendment 3:
“State governmental entities estimate no costs or savings, but unknown impact. Local governmental entities estimate costs of at least $51,000 annually in reduced tax revenues. Opponents estimate a potentially significant loss to state revenue.”
We heard from a reader wondering where that $51,000 estimate comes from — and whether it’s accurate. Here’s what to know about the fiscal note and how the state calculated the figure.
How will restoring abortion rights cost Missouri $51,000?
It’s impossible to predict the exact economic impacts of restoring abortion rights in Missouri. But it’s up to the state to make an educated guess — and guesses varied widely in the years leading up to Amendment 3’s inclusion on the ballot.
According to an April 2023 letter from Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey, state auditor Scott Fitzpatrick requested input from 12 counties and 14 cities when reviewing the fiscal note. Just three counties and two cities responded to the request, and only one entity predicted any potential costs — Greene County, which includes Springfield.
“Greene County estimated that 135 future citizens would be lost in that county annually due to legalizing abortion in Missouri,” Bailey wrote. “It estimated nearly $51,000 in lost revenue annually to that county based on the reduced population base.” The predicted population loss was based on the number of abortions recorded in 2020, he added.
So it’s one Missouri county’s estimate of hypothetical lost tax revenue from 135 nonexistent residents that informs the fiscal note appearing on ballots across the state.
Landing on this figure requires some assumptions. For instance, the estimate assumes any terminated pregnancies would have lasted to term, rather than ending in a miscarriage, a stillbirth, an illicit abortion or a legal abortion in another state. And even if 135 additional individuals were born in Greene County, there is no guarantee they would go on to pay taxes to that county in adulthood.
The number has been widely criticized from both the pro- and anti-abortion rights camps. A Rolling Stone analysis called its logic “tortured” in May 2023, while Assistant Attorney General Jason Lewis told state Supreme Court judges that “nonsensical methodologies” were behind the figure.
What did abortion opponents want the fiscal note to say?
Bailey didn’t want the amendment’s fiscal note to include Greene County’s estimate alone.
His April 2023 letter went on to predict that legalizing abortion across Missouri would cost the state “likely upward of $12 billion” per year in lost Medicaid funds from the federal government, up to $51 billion per year. The state’s total general revenue in 2023 was only $6.13 billion.
Bailey got the $51 billion figure by multiplying the estimated 4,660 abortions in Missouri in 2019 by $10.9 million. This number comes from a 2022 report by the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee’s Republican members.
The nine-page report, entitled The Economic Cost of Abortion, chose $10.9 million as the hypothetical value of a human life based on the U.S. Department of Transportation’s statistical modeling for employment benefits offered at high-risk jobs for adults. The value has nothing to do with individual contributions to the economy — instead, it’s merely one measure of personal risk tolerance.
In spring 2023, Bailey insisted that the fiscal note include the $12.5 billion estimated cost based on potential Medicaid losses — but Fitzpatrick refused, citing a “lack of evidence” that Missouri would actually lose access to federal funds. The ACLU then sued to force both parties to agree on ballot language so petitioners could begin collecting signatures.
Circuit Judge Jon Beetem resoundingly rejected Bailey’s authority to adjust the fiscal note in June 2023, and the Missouri Supreme Court declined to hear Bailey’s appeal.
Ultimately, the only numeric cost cited on the amendment that Missourians will see on their ballots is the original $51,000 that Greene County provided — the estimated tax revenue lost from 135 people they believe will never be born.
Do you have more questions about Missouri’s abortion amendment or other aspects of the upcoming election? Ask the Service Journalism team at kcq@kcstar.com.
This story was originally published October 2, 2024 at 5:00 AM.
.jpg)