In high-stakes Missouri governor race, do GOP voters want ‘common sense’ or a ‘reckoning’?
The Republican race for Missouri governor rushed toward the finish line this week, setting up voters to render a momentous decision about whether to reaffirm the party’s embattled traditional establishment or empower its aggressive right wing.
Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft and state Sen. Bill Eigel — the major contenders — have all placed different bets on the path to victory in the Aug. 6 primary election. Whoever is correct will win the nomination in a deeply conservative state and possess a strong chance of becoming the state’s next chief executive.
Kehoe, a former car dealer from Jefferson City who sharpened his political instincts as a state senator, is betting that enough traditional Republicans remain in Missouri, combined with moderates and even some independents, to put him on top on Election Day. He has centered his campaign around his experience and values such as leadership and “common sense,” hoping voters want stability amid a turbulent moment in American politics.
Ashcroft, whose name evokes memories of his father — former governor, senator and U.S. attorney general John Ashcroft — has sketched out a vision of a staunchly conservative state. From his perch in the Missouri Secretary of State’s Office, he has engaged in a series of charged political battles over public library books, voter fraud and abortion ballot measures that have helped raise his profile.
Eigel has staked his campaign on the belief that Republicans are ready to radically upend state government. His extreme policy proposals, including promising the mass arrest of migrants and refusing to take federal education funding, would fundamentally transform the state. The Weldon Spring state senator built a reputation as a caustic presence in the state Senate but has attracted enthusiastic campaign crowds with his soaring oratory.
“My understanding is that … the Kehoe campaign has a very extensive get out the vote machine,” said Jean Evans, a former Missouri Republican Party executive director. “I think Eigel voters are very passionate, or are going to show up no matter what.”
“And then I think with Ashcroft, it’s sort of, if they haven’t made up their mind, do they come home to the name that they’ve known?”
Former President Donald Trump endorsed all three candidates over the weekend, leaving his true preferences unknown. Still, they have rushed to release new ads promoting the endorsement in the final days of the race.
Among the candidates and their supporters, a very real sense exists that the primary election marks a true turning point in the state’s history. At a campaign stop in Blue Springs last week, Kehoe called the election a “watershed moment” for Missouri.
“The vision I have for Missouri is very different than the vision of the other folks on the ballot,” Kehoe said.
The most recent publicly available polling shows a close contest between Kehoe and Ashcroft. A Remington Research Group survey of likely voters conducted last week found the two candidates tied at 29%, with Eigel at 18%.
“I think in a three-way race with a few other candidates tossed in, if you can pull out 34% you’re the winner,” said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Missouri.
Whoever wins will face the winner of the Democratic primary in the November general election. Missouri House Minority Leader Crystal Quade and businessman Mike Hamra, both of Springfield, are the major Democratic candidates. The two share a similar policy vision and have engaged in a mostly positive contest.
But Democrats have struggled to win statewide elections in recent years. The last Democrat to win a governor’s race was Gov. Jay Nixon, who won reelection in 2012. Against that backdrop, the Republican primary takes on even greater importance because of its potential to effectively decide who becomes the next governor.
Kehoe’s ‘common sense’
Kehoe, 62, has assembled a sweeping coalition of business, agricultural and law enforcement groups in support of his campaign. The massive network has delivered him a strong financial advantage and provided a ready-made get-out-the-vote operation.
Kehoe is the overall money leader in the race, with his campaign and a supporting PAC reporting more than $11.4 million in receipts so far. Eigel’s campaign and a supporting PAC have reported $5.8 million in receipts, and Ashcroft’s campaign and supporting PAC have reported $4.2 million, according to reports filed Monday with the Missouri Ethics Commission.
“I’m not a screamer and a holler. I’m not a guy who’s going to stand up and tell you how great I am. I’m not going to stand up and tell you I’m more conservative than somebody else,” Kehoe said during the Blue Springs stop.
“In my mind,” Kehoe said, “if you’re a Republican, you’re a Republican. It’s not a scale of one to 10.”
Kehoe was picked to be lieutenant governor in 2018 when Gov. Mike Parson, then the lieutenant governor, took office following the resignation of Eric Greitens.
Parson has endorsed Kehoe, whose agenda bears some resemblance to the current governor, with a focus on public safety and economic development. Kehoe is the only major GOP candidate, for instance, to express interest in providing aid to the Kansas City Chiefs and Royals to ensure the teams remain in Missouri.
Kehoe’s campaign has also voiced an openness to changing Missouri’s abortion ban to allow exceptions for rape and incest. The only exception allowed under current law is for medical emergencies. Voters will likely decide in November whether to approve a state constitutional amendment that would overturn the ban.
At the same time, the lieutenant governor has taken other stances largely in line with the Republican field. Kehoe, Ashcroft and Eigel all support prohibiting sales of Missouri farmland to entities from foreign adversary nations, such as China.
Kehoe has been attacked for his support of a 2013 bill that ended a state ban on foreign ownership of agricultural land. More recently, Kehoe has faced criticism for leasing a campaign bus from a lobbyist representing a Chinese company that owns agricultural land in the state.
In Blue Springs, Kehoe stressed the importance of voting in the Republican primary and not waiting until the general election. Primary elections — in both parties — naturally attract the most highly-motivated voters, who are often more conservative or more liberal than the overall public.
Since Republicans dominate Missouri’s general election, GOP candidates tack further and further to the right to win over conservative primary voters. Kehoe’s comments appear to suggest a need to mobilize less ideologically-driven voters who may not otherwise be inclined to cast a ballot in a primary.
“There’s a lot of common-sense conservatives in this state and I’m not sure sometimes what party they identify with. I think they just understand conservative values and making sure people understand the Aug. 6 election is when you’re going to pick your next governor,” Kehoe said in an interview.
Ashcroft’s moment?
As Kehoe has emphasized his experience, Ashcroft has portrayed himself as an outsider — despite his family’s political past.
Ashcroft, 51, has cast himself as an engineer who will provide conservative solutions to problems while ignoring Jefferson City’s insider and lobbyist class. The engineering moniker has attracted controversy; a complaint was filed over Ashcroft’s use of the word despite holding no professional license. Ashcroft’s campaign has defended his professional background.
Even as he has helped boost his son’s name recognition among voters, John Ashcroft has largely stayed on the sidelines in the campaign, at least publicly. The father appeared in an ad several months ago defending the son against attacks over his record on opposing Chinese ownership of land, but has otherwise not been a regular part of the campaign.
Jay Ashcroft became secretary of state in 2017 and has gradually developed a public profile distinct from his family history.
Last year, Ashcroft pulled Missouri out of a nonprofit organization that analyzes voter registration, motor vehicle department and other data to help maintain accurate voter rolls and eliminate duplicate registrations. His decision came after some Republicans grew suspicious of the organization, commonly referred to as ERIC, amid the conspiracies promoted by Trump and his supporters.
In 2022, he rolled out a rule that prohibits public library employees from giving minors access to materials without first receiving parental permission. It blocked libraries from using state funds to buy materials for minors that could be considered pornography or obscene under state law.
“As governor, I want to make sure that parents are in charge of education. Mom and dad know best. I want you to control the money, control the values and education for your children,” Ashcroft said during a recent TV debate.
Ashcroft has emphasized his desire to end state income taxes, though Kehoe and Eigel have both also voiced support for the idea. Eigel has focused on calling for the elimination of personal property taxes, while Ashcroft also wants to repeal a recent gas tax increase.
Missouri collects roughly $10 billion a year in personal and corporate income taxes that support the state’s general revenue — making the revenue a key component in funding state government. Ending the state income tax would force lawmakers to confront large, painful choices about the role and scope of government. Fewer than a dozen states lack an income tax.
“I’m running for governor because Missourians deserve more. They deserve leadership. They need someone to plot a course and show them how they can be better than they even realize,” Ashcroft said during the debate.
Eigel’s ‘reckoning’
Eigel potentially represents the biggest threat to an Ashcroft victory, as the state senator competes for the most ardent conservative voters.
Eigel, 46, has spent eight years in the Missouri Senate, often irritating Republican leaders. His background includes running a small remodeling company, and he is a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, a hard-right band of senators who frequently filibuster legislation to create leverage over top Republicans. They regularly scold other GOP senators for being insufficiently conservative.
“It’s time for a reckoning,” Eigel has taken to saying recently.
Polls have mostly shown him in third place in the race, but his support appears to have grown over time. One poll this spring pegged his support as low as 3%.
“I think Eigel has been able to raise the bar above what the expectations might have been in the beginning,” said Carl Bearden, a former Republican Missouri House speaker pro tem who supports Eigel.
Eigel has attracted supporters by putting forward the most explosive platform of any major GOP candidate. He wants to abolish the Missouri Department of Elementary and Secondary Education and has voiced support for making gold and silver legal tender.
He has also said he will conduct mass arrests of migrants in Missouri and deport them. He has said repeatedly he will declare an invasion under the Missouri Constitution, allowing him to enlist the Missouri State Highway Patrol and county sheriffs in making arrests.
What remains unclear is whether a court would block the plan and under what process Missouri would deport individuals — or whether they would be turned over to federal authorities.
But Eigel revels in the controversy, which helps fuel his campaign through public attention. Last week, he released a TV ad where he appears with an unidentified Hispanic-looking man standing in front of an American flag backdrop as on-screen text says the ad is a “message for illegal immigrants.”
In the ad, Eigel promises to crack down on illegal immigration and says he’s “throwing them in jail” and “sending them back where they came from.” The unidentified man acts as a translator, but includes flourishes, at one point saying “the party is over” in Spanish. When Eigel says migrants will be sent back, the man puts his hands on his head in exasperation.
“When you guys turn on your TVs in the morning and you see bold, conservative governors in other big, red states doing all those things they promised in campaign season, I’m willing to bet there’s a point in your mind where you said to yourself, ‘When is it going to be Missouri’s turn?’” Eigel said at a rally in Lee’s Summit on Monday night.
“When is Missouri going to take on the mantle of leadership in this country?” he said. “When is Missouri going to lead these United States?”
Turnout crucial
Even if Eigel loses the race, a strong showing could further embolden the Freedom Caucus and other hard-right lawmakers. While Eigel would be out of state government, the Freedom Caucus has been building a statewide network of supporters who they can use to pressure top Republicans.
With no competitive Republican race for U.S. Senate, the governor’s contest is the marquee GOP primary battle.
The primary election on Tuesday will pit three contrasting approaches against each other — Kehoe’s well-financed network of endorsements and supportive groups, Ashcroft’s name ID and conservative plans, and Eigel’s burn-it-to-the-ground rhetoric.
The winner will help set the tone for the rest of the state party heading into the general election.
Kehoe’s “probably assuming he’s going to get sort of the Main Street Republicans, the people who supported Parson and that the other two will compete for the MAGA side of the party,” Squire, the political science professor, said.
“But it’s not clear which group will show up in bigger numbers next Tuesday.”
The Star’s Kacen Bayless contributed reporting
This story was originally published August 1, 2024 at 5:30 AM.
