Where do key Senate races stand a week out from Election Day? Here’s what polls show

The U.S. midterm elections take place one week from today. While Republicans are favored to regain control of the House of Representatives, the outcome in the Senate is far less certain, according to recent polling.

The Senate, which is currently split 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, is considered a toss up by FiveThirtyEight, a polling analysis site, meaning it could go either way on Nov. 8.

In the weeks leading up to the election, many of the Senate races in key battleground states have tightened, according to recent polling. Here’s a look at 10 key races to watch for and what the polling there shows.

Pennsylvania

In 2020, Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced he would not run for reelection in 2022, opening up a Senate seat in one of the nation’s battleground states. Democratic candidate John Fetterman, current lieutenant governor of the Keystone State, is facing off against Republican candidate Mehmet Oz, a celebrity surgeon.

Fetterman is recovering from a stroke, which impacted his recent debate performance, according to the Associated Press.

Before that debate, the Cook Political Report, an online newsletter that analyzes elections, shifted the race from “lean Democrat” to a toss up in early October. Meanwhile FiveThirtyEight maintains that Fetterman is slightly favored to win.

Georgia

In Georgia, which has been considered a battleground state since the 2020 upset that saw Joe Biden win his only state in the Deep South, Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is up against former NFL player Herschel Walker. Walker has been dogged by a spate of stories alleging he paid for a former girlfriend’s abortion, a procedure he has voiced strong opposition against.

The race for the Senate in the Peach Tree State has been neck-and-neck for months, according to polling, and is considered a toss up by both the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.

North Carolina

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is not seeking reelection in North Carolina, and current Republican Representative Ted Budd is running against Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the state’s Supreme Court, to replace him. The state has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in over a decade, according to NPR.

Ted Budd is favored to win by both the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.

Washington

Democratic incumbent Senator Patty Murray, who has been in office since 1993, is running for reelection against Republican candidate Tiffany Smiley, a former nurse. Murray has enjoyed a comfortable lead in what is known as a solidly blue state, but her support has “slipped in recent weeks,” according to Politico, prompting an influx of Democratic donations.

Murray is clearly favored to win, according to FiveThirtyEight, and likely favored to win by the Cook Political Report.

Nevada

Incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto is vying to retain her seat against Republican candidate Adam Laxalt, the state’s attorney general. The race is one of the tightest this midterm season. “If Cortez Masto can’t turn things around, the GOP would be well on its way to netting the one seat they need to retake the Senate and blunt the final two years of President Joe Biden’s term,” according to the Associated Press.

The race is a dead heat, according to FiveThirtyEight, and is considered a toss up by the Cook Political Report.

Ohio

Democratic Representative Tim Ryan and J.D. Vance, a venture capitalist and author of “Hillbilly Elegy,” his bestselling memoir, are running for an open Senate seat. Incumbent Senator Rob Portman is not seeking reelection. While the race has been close for months, Vance has garnered a slight lead in recent polling, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Vance is favored to win by a sizable margin, according to FiveThirtyEight, and the state is leaning Republican, per the Cook Political Report.

Arizona

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who became the fourth astronaut elected to Congress in 2020, according to Scientific American, is running for reelection against Republican candidate Blake Masters, a venture capitalist. Libertarian candidate Marc Victor, with support in the “low single digits,” dropped out of the race on Nov. 1 and endorsed Masters, according to The Hill.

Kelly is slightly favored to win, according to FiveThirtyEight, but the contest is a toss up, according to the Cook Political Report.

New Hampshire

Incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan, who took office in 2017, is running against Republican candidate Don Bolduc, a retired Army brigadier general. New Hampshire, a state that is sometimes considered a political kingmaker, has not garnered the same level of attention this midterm season. “Republican resources and Democratic attention have largely shifted to other states,” according to Politico.

Hassan is favored to win, according to FiveThirtyEight, and the Granite State leans Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report.

Wisconsin

Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson, who has been in office since 2011, is running for reelection against Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes, the state’s lieutenant governor. Barnes outraised Johnson by almost $8 million in recent federal campaign finance reports and also outspent the Johnson campaign in the same quarter, according to Wisconsin Public Radio.

Johnson is favored to win by FiveThirtyEight, but the state is a toss up, per the Cook Political Report.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio is running for reelection against Democratic candidate Val Demings, a representative for Florida’s 10th congressional district. Demings, who is trailing Rubio, recently said the Democratic Party needs to improve its messaging strategy. “We have to do a better job of telling our stories and clearly demonstrating who’s truly on the side of people who have to go to work every day,” she said, according to the Associated Press.

Rubio is clearly favored to win, according to FiveThirtyEight, and the election is listed as “likely Republican” by the Cook Political Report.

This story was originally published November 1, 2022 at 5:17 PM with the headline "Where do key Senate races stand a week out from Election Day? Here’s what polls show."