Is a ‘red wave’ brewing? Virginia governor win boosts GOP ahead of midterm elections
The Republican upset win in the Virginia governor’s race is the strongest indication yet that voter sentiment has shifted markedly since former President Donald Trump left office less than a year ago.
For both parties, the political dynamics that swept Democrats into power in the last election are already a distant memory. Voters in Virginia and across the country are souring on President Joe Biden, Trump is no longer top of mind and concerns about the economy are outpacing the coronavirus pandemic.
The new political climate, underscored by Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory Tuesday in a state Biden carried by 10 points in 2020, is putting Democrats on the defensive and giving Republicans further confidence they are on pace to make major gains in next year’s midterm elections.
“The political environment has changed with Trump out of office,” said Tucker Martin, a former Republican strategist based in Virginia. “There are some people who believed the Trump era was permanent, but it’s just a very different world with Trump out of office and off Twitter, and people have to adjust accordingly.”
To veteran political operatives, the challenges confronting Democrats are reminiscent of those the incumbent president’s party traditionally faces in a midterm election — and could imperil the Democrats’ slim majorities in Congress.
In every midterm election since 2006, the president’s party has lost control of at least one chamber of Congress, including in 2018, when Democrats capitalized on Trump’s unpopularity and won 41 House seats.
“The first midterm after a presidential election is always rough, right?” said Josh Schwerin, a Democratic strategist. “So this is not a surprise to anyone.”
Even with Biden in the White House, Democratic operatives had hoped that Trump’s continued influence on the Republican Party would help alter the equation in 2022. Democrat Terry McAuliffe repeatedly sought to tie Trump, who is still viewed unfavorably by a majority of voters, to Youngkin in the final stretch of the Virginia governor’s campaign.
But key political indicators are increasingly pointing away from the Democrats. The latest national polling averages show Biden’s approval rating sinking below 43%, putting him ahead of where Trump was at the same point in his White House tenure but behind former President Barack Obama.
Polls also show that a sizable majority of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction as they negatively rate Biden’s handling of issues ranging from the economy to immigration while questioning his overall leadership abilities.
Republicans will now be further energized by Youngkin’s win in Virginia, as well as a closer-than-expected result in the governor’s race in heavily Democratic New Jersey.
Members of both parties say that Biden will have to make up lost ground ahead of next year’s midterm elections without relying on Trump as a primary foil.
“In March and April, voters were still comparing him to Donald Trump in their rearview mirror. Now Trump’s kind of fading away and they’re assessing Biden on his record, and they come away dissatisfied,” said Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican pollster.
“Twelve months is a political lifetime, but based on where they are right now and historical precedent, you’d be hard pressed to figure out a way for Democrats to salvage the 2022 elections,” he added.
Although Virginia has trended Democratic in recent years, strategists from both parties see the governor’s race — which took place at the midway point of the last presidential election and the next midterm election — as an early test of what issues and messages resonate with voters.
Virginia’s off-year campaigns have recently been predictive of the national election to come. In 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican Ed Gillespie by nine points, foreshadowing the difficult 2018 midterms for the GOP. And in 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell easily won over Democrat Creigh Deeds a year before Republicans took control in the House.
Republicans see Youngkin’s performance this year in Virginia, where the party had not previously won a statewide election in 12 years, as another sign voters are prepared to render a similar judgment on Biden and his party in races for the House and Senate next year.
“Looking to 2022, there’s one crystal clear message: the red wave is coming, and the red wave is coming because Joe Biden and Democrats in Washington look totally incompetent and out of touch with the cares of Americans,” said Corry Bliss, a Republican strategist working on several congressional campaigns.
Biden’s poll numbers have deteriorated since the late summer, following the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan and a surge in coronavirus cases.
But even as perceptions of the pandemic improve — 56% of voters nationally said the worst of the virus is behind them compared to 19% who said the worst is yet to come, according to a new NBC poll — Biden’s approval continues to hover in the low 40s.
That’s led some Democrats to think that perceptions of the economy, more than any one issue, explain the president’s unpopularity. A recent Quinnipiac University poll, for instance, found that 55% of Americans think the economy is getting worse. And initial exit polls from Virginia on Tuesday showed that the economy outranked all other issues, including the coronavirus, as voters’ top concern.
“We need to both have a good economy and sound like we’re the ones who created it,” said Lanae Erickson, senior vice president for the social policy and politics program at Third Way, a center-left think tank in Washington, D.C. “And that’s a fundamental challenge that we have to face.”
GOP operatives expect to see some immediate political benefits following Youngkin’s victory. They say the results could sway Republicans previously thinking about running for office to enter the fray and energize donors to contribute more money, which could help the party expand the playing field into more traditionally Democratic areas in 2022.
“Those who are on the fence about running are going to run, and you’re going to have a ton of money flowing in the coffers,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican consultant who worked at the National Republican Congressional Committee during the 2018 midterm elections.
Republican strategists also say that the Youngkin campaign could provide a playbook for the party’s candidates to navigate a post-Trump era. Youngkin was endorsed by the former president, but managed to keep him at arm’s length during the general election, allowing him to win the support of Trump’s base without repelling independents.
While Democrats attempted to put Trump front and center in the race, Youngkin focused on issues such as inflation, education and crime.
“Trump will continue to be a factor,” said Martin, the former Virginia Republican operative. “He just doesn’t block out the sun like he used to.”
This story was originally published November 3, 2021 at 9:04 AM with the headline "Is a ‘red wave’ brewing? Virginia governor win boosts GOP ahead of midterm elections."
