Dave Helling: The political outlook? Stalemate, dead ahead

Just two weeks after Election Day, newly empowered Republicans are urging the White House to cooperate with Congress this year and next.

“I hope the president decides that … this is a good time, of divided government, to do hard things,” Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri said last week.

It might work. There have been a few signals in the last couple of weeks that Barack Obama and congressional Republicans might achieve a limited detente on issues like the budget and corporate tax reform. After that, a vague agreement on foreign policy objectives is possible.

Over the long term, though, anyone expecting a new era of comity and compromise in Washington is likely to be severely disappointed. In fact, recent history suggests just the opposite: We should dig in for more years of stalemate, no matter which party controls the federal government.

That’s because the nation’s electoral incentives are now clearly aligned with obstruction and obstinacy, to a greater degree than at any time in recent memory. Republicans now control Congress precisely because they have spent the last six years opposing virtually every policy objective sought by Democrats and the White House.

On the merits, that opposition may make some sense. Obamacare remains deeply unpopular, and the economy remains stuck. Six years into the Obama presidency, it’s still hard to find agreement between the political parties on important issues because their disputes are real and fundamental.

But the recent elections have also reinforced the political power of Just Saying No. As it turns out, that’s what most voters want.

It’s unlikely to change anytime soon. If Republicans nominate and elect a president in 2016 — a distinct possibility — why would anyone think Democrats would acquiesce to the GOP’s wish list? It’s much more likely they’ll conclude the only way back to the majority is to try to stop almost anything Republicans want.

It’s hard to overestimate the damage caused by a decade of polarization in our national politics. In the 1980s, Democrats and Ronald Reagan achieved major reform of immigration and tax policies. In the 1990s, Republicans and Bill Clinton agreed on welfare reform and produced a balanced budget.

Today, similar compromises seem laughably difficult to conceive.

The 2016 presidential campaign is now underway. The voters’ 2014 firm endorsement of stalemate may make its outcome irrelevant.

This story was originally published November 17, 2014 at 11:59 AM with the headline "Dave Helling: The political outlook? Stalemate, dead ahead."