Will a ‘blue wave’ sweep away Republican supermajorities in Missouri and Kansas?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Republican supermajorities in Kansas and Missouri face risk of slipping away.
- Kansas Democrats must flip five House seats in November to break the supermajority.
- Missouri Democrats must flip two Senate or three House seats to break supermajority.
Republican supermajorities in Missouri and Kansas are at risk of slipping away, according to a recent political analysis.
Republicans have held at least two-thirds both chambers of both states for over a decade, holding enough seats to override a governor’s veto without needing a vote from the opposing party. But Ballotpedia, an online encyclopedia of elections, included both Kansas and Missouri among the eight states most likely to flip.
In Kansas, where no Senate seats are up for election this year, Democrats would need to flip five House seats in the November elections. Breaking the Republican supermajority has been a top priority for Kansas Democrats for years, but it may come too late with Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly leaving office in January.
If a Democrat wins in November, it would be the first time in state history that the party controlled the governor’s mansion for more than eight consecutive years. The Republican supermajority has been instrumental during Kelly’s tenure, and it has allowed Republicans to pass laws despite Kelly’s veto.
“The Dems will always want to break that super majority, just because it can make them feel so powerless,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University. “Really, a lot of the politics of Kansas are going to be dependent on whether the GOP has a super majority, but also who’s governor.”
Beatty said Democrats’ odds of flipping the House in Kansas are better than most years, but they will still need a confluence of factors in their favor. Even if there is a “wave” election that overwhelmingly favors Democrats, candidates will still need a message that breaks through to voters and the money to spread it.
“They’ll have to have a winning message,” Beatty said. “In Kansas, where only 25% of registered voters are Democrats, they’re going to need Republicans and independents, so they’re going to have to put those things together.”
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a national funding arm, identified seven candidates it will support in Kansas this year. It includes one incumbent in a competitive district and six candidates seeking to flip a district blue.
“This November, Kansas Democrats have a historic opportunity to make significant gains in the House and push back against the GOP’s unpopular agenda,” Heather Williams, DLCC legislative campaign committee president, said in a statement.
Missouri House and Senate at risk
In Missouri, Democrats would need to flip two seats in the Senate or three seats in the House to break the Supermajority.
“Broadly speaking, if you look at the opportunities in suburban districts, I think there’s a chance,” said Matt Harris, a political science professor at Park University. “The impact is kind of negligible in Missouri because the governor is Republican.”
Missouri won’t have a shot at the governor’s office until 2028, at the end of Gov. Mike Kehoe’s first term.
Harris said the Democrats’ best opportunities are in Kansas City and St. Louis Suburbs, and maybe some seats in Columbia, where Democrats are competitive. Unlike in Kansas, the DLCC hasn’t put its weight behind specific races in Missouri, but does call the state a target in 2026.
