Will popular Kansas City-area pastor challenge Roger Marshall? Key decision looms
Inside a packed Lenexa brewery last weekend, the founding pastor of the nation’s largest United Methodist church publicly grappled with a question that has loomed over Kansas politics for two months.
Is the Rev. Adam Hamilton in or out?
Over the last eight weeks, the widely popular pastor has visited libraries, a brewery and the Clay County Museum as part of a sweeping listening tour across Kansas as he weighs whether to launch a campaign to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall in November.
Saturday morning’s brewery stop marked the final leg of the tour as he prepares to make that decision by the end of the month. But, as attendees lobbed questions and shared their insights, Hamilton also wrestled with another core element of his potential campaign: Would he run as an independent or as a Democrat?
“We’ve talked about, and had great conversations about, ‘are you running as an independent or an independent-leaning Democrat,’” Hamilton, 61, told the crowd. “Those are part of the conversations we’re having.”
Ahead of Hamilton’s potentially seismic decision, The Star spoke with political experts, supporters, skeptics and his own campaign team about whether the founding pastor, who often tries to convey nuance in politics, can convert his personal popularity and brand into votes.
Adam Hamilton and the two-party system
A campaign would mark a defining moment for Hamilton, who built a national reputation and profile in large part through his willingness to discuss politically-charged issues from the pulpit. The possibility of a Democratic campaign could also scramble the race for U.S. Senate in Kansas, illustrating a remarkable shift in strategy as Hamilton initially floated a campaign as an independent.
“It sounds like he’s in,” Matt Harris, a political scientist at Park University in Parkville, said in an interview. “Just based on the amount of effort that he’s put into this.”
Harris said he expected a campaign from Hamilton to center on attracting voters nudged in the middle of the polarized American two-party system. That kind of campaign would rely on Hamilton’s popular name recognition, but would also have to contend with voters’ strongly-held political beliefs, which often favor Democrats or Republicans.
“I think we need to see more from him about the substance of issue positions,” Harris said. “It’s hard to run in the middle lane in a sort of bipolar system.”
An independent bid wouldn’t be unprecedented in Kansas. In a 2014 Senate contest, Democrats opted against running their own candidate, instead throwing support behind independent businessman Greg Orman, who lost by more than 10 percentage points to longtime Republican Sen. Pat Roberts.
Third-party bids have influenced the outcome of statewide races, though. Orman ran for governor in 2018 and collected 6.5% of the vote — more than the margin that Democrat Laura Kelly defeated Republican Kris Kobach by.
At the brewery over the weekend, Hamilton acknowledged concerns that running as an independent could split anti-Marshall votes and throw the race to the incumbent. It’s become a common refrain from attendees at his listening tour stops, he said.
Hamilton weighs decision
When Hamilton informed his congregation last month of plans to explore a run for Senate, he told his followers at Church of the Resurrection in Leawood that he would run as an independent. That announcement appeared to mark the culmination of a 36-year career spent using religion to discuss hot-button, complicated political issues to a church largely split along party lines.
“I feel like he could reach those people that are kind of somewhere in the middle of both parties and hopefully get them to vote,” said Suzanne Hess, who has known Hamilton for about 15 years.
She attended his church before moving to western Kansas four years ago. Hess said Hamilton’s recent stop in Scott City reaffirmed her faith that he’s uniquely qualified to bridge the gap between conservative and liberal voters.
Hamilton spoke at President Barack Obama’s second inaugural prayer service in 2013. He invited abortion opponents and supporters to a forum in 2022 before Kansas held the first statewide referendum on abortion access following the reversal of Roe v. Wade. And he championed the 2024 decision by the United Methodist Church to allow LGBTQ+ clergy.
He has also gained a large following online, sharing clips of sermons that sometimes touch on politics, such as the fatal shooting of an American at the hands of a federal agent in Minnesota. He condemned the killing of protesters before also praying for immigration agents.
Others are more skeptical of Hamilton’s political nuance. In an opinion piece published in The Star earlier this month, Scott Curtis, a retired U.S. Navy captain and FEMA official, wrote that Hamilton “seems too passive for this moment in time.”
“The reverend’s Facebook page and his exploratory committee webpage are devoid of policy positions, but full of platitudes that the real problem facing America is a lack of ‘civility, kindness, compassion, humanity,’” Curtis wrote.
Running as a Democrat?
In recent weeks, however, Hamilton has signaled the possibility of running as a Democrat. He began floating the phrase “independent-minded Democrat.” He told attendees at one of his recent listening stops that, if elected, he would caucus with Democrats. And, he recently met with Kelly, the Democratic governor.
“I’ve been listening to folks across Kansas to figure out how to best serve the people of our state, and to do so in a way that aligns with our values — whether that’s as an Independent or an independent-minded Democrat — listening to and serving the people of Kansas,” Hamilton said in a statement to The Star.
A Democratic campaign from Hamilton could represent a reckoning for Kansas’ political system. Republicans have dominated the U.S. Senate in Kansas and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids has also entertained a potential campaign to challenge Marshall as a Democrat. The Democrats who have already entered the race include retired corporate executive Sandy Spidel Neumann, real estate developer Erik Murray, former Biden USDA official Christy Davis, Army veteran Noah Taylor, attorney Anne Parelkar, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, former federal prosecutor Jason Hart and Michael Soetaert of Wellington.
When asked to weigh in on Hamilton’s potential campaign, a spokesperson for Kelly said the Democratic governor did not plan to make an endorsement in the Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate.
“Adam Hamilton requested a meeting, and the Governor met with him last Friday as a courtesy to someone considering running for statewide office, as she has done on multiple occasions,” said spokesperson Grace Hoge. “The Governor has no plans to weigh in on the Senate primary.”
Aside from his political affiliation, Hamilton has made clear that he would be running to unseat Marshall, an incumbent Republican who has held his office since 2021. Hamilton has regularly pointed to the Republican senator’s ties with President Donald Trump, which include an early endorsement from the president and a close alignment with Trump’s political agenda.
That strategy could work well for Hamilton, despite Republican dominance in Kansas. Political experts have, over the past several months, predicted that 2026 could be a weak year for Republicans, pointing to a series of warning signs, such as rising gas prices, war with Iran and bleak labor market reports.
“Everywhere I’ve gone, I’ve heard that Kansans are frustrated with politicians like Roger Marshall who aren’t listening to us and don’t seem to care about us,” Hamilton told The Star. “Gas is more expensive, health care is more expensive, and people are telling me they’re frustrated and scared. And the politicians in Washington are just making it all worse.”
Inside GOP opposition
Ahead of Hamilton’s announcement, Marshall and his Republican allies have already seized on his recent overtures to Democrats and his decision to frame Marshall as close to Trump. Those comments suggest that Republicans would attempt to cast Hamilton as too liberal if he were to run.
Brent Robertson, Marshall’s chief of staff, in a statement to The Star, pointed to Hamilton’s recent comments saying he would caucus with Democrats.
“Why fake it? He’s not an independent, and should run as a Democrat,” Robertson said. “Senator Marshall is focused on keeping Kansas families safe, and helping them keep more of their hard-earned money. That’s the job.”
Eric Pahls, a Republican consultant who has previously worked with Marshall, echoed that argument in an interview, suggesting that Hamilton would be framed as a Democrat even if he were to run as an independent.
“I don’t think it really matters whether or not he runs as an independent or Democrat. He will be the Democratic candidate in this race,” Pahls said. “Kansas has a long history of liberal candidates identifying as Democrats or independents not becoming United States senators. I have no reason to believe this one will be any different.”
But, as Hamilton traveled across the state, he largely avoided partisan bombast in favor of a more subtle, textured message that he hopes will resonate in a potential campaign. It’s an approach built on more than three decades of speaking to a congregation that he feels is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.
“I’ve said from the start that I’ll explore the best path to bring people together, to fix our broken politics, to represent Kansans and to bring some accountability to politicians who aren’t listening to us and don’t seem to care about us,” Hamilton said.
