Poll shows Missouri voters back abortion ban, but value abortion rights. Why?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- 47% support the amendment language; 40% disagree, 12% unsure.
- 59% favor abortion within eight weeks, yet 47% back the amendment language.
- Poll director says gender‑affirming care ban likely explains support for Amendment 3.
New polling suggests Missouri voters back the language of an upcoming abortion ban despite their broad support of abortion rights, a remarkable disconnect as the state prepares for a historic vote in November.
The poll, released Tuesday by Saint Louis University and British pollster YouGov, marks the first poll surveying Missouri voters’ support of a measure that would ban nearly all abortions in the state. The measure, called Amendment 3, will appear on the Nov. 3 ballot and would overturn the 2024 vote that legalized abortion in Missouri.
The poll found that a plurality, 47%, of those surveyed supported the language of the constitutional amendment to ban abortions, while 40% disagreed. The remaining 12% said they were not sure.
Those same voters, however, expressed support for some level of abortion access in response to separate questions. The poll, for example, showed 59% of respondents supported abortion within eight weeks of a pregnancy, a situation that would likely be banned if voters pass Amendment 3.
The poll results could serve as a warning sign for abortion rights supporters, who have long attacked the ballot measure as misleading. In addition to the abortion ban, the measure also purports to ban gender-affirming care for minors, which is currently illegal under state law.
Missouri’s ban on cross-sex hormones and puberty blockers for minors expires next year, but the House passed a bill that would extend the ban indefinitely. Missouri lawmakers permanently banned gender transition surgeries for minors in 2023.
Steve Rogers, an associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University who directed the poll, said the ban on gender-affirming care is the likely explanation for the respondents’ support of the proposed abortion ban. The responses to the poll’s questions about abortion haven’t meaningfully changed since a majority of voters legalized access in 2024.
“What I find is that if I change their positions on gender affirming care, specifically hormone therapy and gender affirming surgery, that does more to change the probability that they’re going to vote for or against Amendment 3 than the abortion variables,” Rogers said.
Trans health care not popular with voters
The upcoming measure comes as abortion rights remain popular nationwide, even in Republican-led states such as Missouri. However, support for transgender health care and other LGBTQ rights is more limited.
“We’ve kind of been in a moment of backlash against transgender rights generally,” Mary Ziegler, a law professor at the University of California-Davis who closely follows legal fights over abortion access, told The Star in July. “Hitching your star to that particular argument makes some sense when you’re trying to diffuse, essentially, the fact that you’re embracing an unpopular position on abortion.”
Before the release of Tuesday’s poll, longtime anti-abortion lobbyist and director of Campaign Life Missouri, Sam Lee, said that internal polling he’s seen suggests support for Amendment 3, but that supporters need grassroots organizing and fundraising to get the message out. He believes the inclusion of a gender-affirming care ban will ultimately help the campaign.
“We think that this is going to help when voters make a decision in November to vote in favor of Amendment 3,” Lee said.
Maggie Olivia, a senior policy manager for the abortion rights group Abortion Action Missouri, told The Star last month that she believes Missourians will vote against the amendment. She also chastised lawmakers for what she views as dishonest ballot language.
“These politicians feel like they have to hide the ball, be a little more tricky and muddy the waters for folks, because they know that their positions are unpopular,” Olivia said at the time.
“They included this cynical language that’s targeting trans folks in Missouri, they named this Amendment 3 right after the pro-reproductive freedom amendment in 24, really, just anything they can think of to confuse voters,” she said.
Ballot language set
The new poll of 900 likely Missouri voters was conducted between Feb. 9 and Feb. 22 and has a margin of error of 3.63%. The poll also asked voters to weigh in on a host of other issues, including redistricting and approval of President Donald Trump.
The poll results come roughly eight months before Missouri voters will decide whether to once again ban abortions in the state. The measure marks a retaliatory response from Republican lawmakers, who placed the amendment on the ballot after the 2024 vote that legalized access.
The proposed amendment would completely strike down that vote and only allow abortions in rare cases of medical emergencies, fetal anomalies and rape or incest within 12 weeks of gestational age.
In December, a Missouri appeals court rewrote the language that Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins had crafted for the measure. The following language will appear on the ballot:
“Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:
• Repeal the 2024 voter-approved Amendment providing reproductive healthcare rights, including abortion through fetal viability;
• Allow abortions for rape and incest (under twelve weeks’ gestation), emergencies, and fetal anomalies;
• Allow legislation regulating abortion;
• Ensure parental consent for minors’ abortions;
• Prohibit gender transition procedures for minors?”
