Missouri Republicans flipped a key KC-area Senate district. Why it’s a ‘seismic shift’
When Jackson County pastor Joe Nicola won election to the Missouri Senate on Tuesday, Republicans successfully flipped a Kansas City area district previously held by the chamber’s top Democratic leader.
Nicola’s victory on Election Day ensures that the Kansas City-area will send more Republicans to Jefferson City this year and marks a notable shift in leadership for the Jackson County district.
Once held by Senate Minority Leader John Rizzo, the most powerful Democrat in the Senate, the suburbs of Independence, Sugar Creek and Grain Valley will now be represented by Nicola, a first-term Republican who is likely to be aligned with the hard-right Missouri Freedom Caucus.
“It is an absolute, you know, seismic shift,” said Maggie Nurrenbern, a Kansas City Democrat who was elected to the state Senate on Tuesday. “I hope that people pay close attention to what’s happening here in Jefferson City and hold their elected officials accountable.”
This upcoming legislative session will also be the first in years in which not a single member of Senate Democratic leadership is from the Kansas City-area, which could signal a loss of influence for Democrats in the metro. But Democrats also flipped a Boone County district previously held by Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden, the top Republican in the Senate, when Democrat Stephen Webber won his election.
Nicola, a pastor from Grain Valley, defeated Democratic Rep. Robert Sauls from Independence. He received 52% of the vote compared to Sauls’ 48%, according to unofficial results. The seat was vacant after Rizzo, whose term was ending, left the Senate to lead the Jackson County Sports Complex Authority.
Nicola and Sauls both declined comment for this story.
In the lead up to Tuesday’s vote, Nicola promoted a more traditional conservative look to voters, including a focus on his opposition to abortion and promises to curtail crime and defend gun rights. He also hosted several events in which he promoted a new property tax freeze for seniors.
But reporting from The Star also revealed his more fringe beliefs, outlined in his online writings and sermons, that made critics question how he would govern. Those statements included the idea that sometimes mental illness is actually demon possession, an argument that Missouri should “decouple” from the federal government and a claim that there’s “no such thing as separation of church and state.”
Nicola’s church in Independence also donated money to a political action committee that supported his candidacy, a move questioned by legal experts who spoke with The Star.
Nicola’s election, which was fueled in part by a section of Jackson County that has grown more conservative, could hold significant consequences for the prominent district and the Missouri Senate as a whole.
How did Nicola flip the district?
Both Republicans and Democrats who spoke to The Star attributed part of Nicola’s victory to a broader shift nationally for Republican candidates, including President-elect Donald Trump, who won 51% of the vote in Jackson County outside Kansas City. The district, Senate District 11, also appears to be leaning more conservative, particularly after the district map was redrawn in 2022.
“The facts are, you know, after redistricting, that district changed quite a lot. The R and D breakdown now favors the R’s where it didn’t before,” said Sen. Mike Cierpiot, a Lee’s Summit Republican. “I think this district is going to do very well for Republicans.”
Ahead of Tuesday, many Republicans had expected Republican candidates to perform poorly among suburban women voters with Trump at the top of the ticket. However, Trump — and suburban Republicans — made gains on election night, said Jean Evans, a former executive director of the Missouri Republican Party.
Evans also pointed to several key issues that could have fueled Nicola’s victory, including a focus on education issues and the events he hosted to help seniors navigate property taxes.
“There were a lot of people that met him and viewed him as someone who had their interests first, as opposed to his own,” Evans said. “He definitely has service in mind. And I think that people saw that and they liked it.”
Geoff Gerling, a former executive director of the Jackson County Democratic Committee, said that Democrats knew that holding District 11 “was going to be a difficult fight.” Nicola likely had a boost from Trump being on the ballot and Democrats will need to focus on driving voter turnout in future elections, Gerling said.
“There’s a 100% chance that we’ll be back in four years to fight for that district again, and once again, it will be one of the most closely watched in the state,” he said.
How will Nicola impact the KC-area?
The Kansas City-area is poised to see a major shift in its Senate representation next year. Along with Rizzo, Democratic Sens. Lauren Arthur and Greg Razer, two experienced senators from Kansas City, will no longer be in the chamber next year.
While Democrats lost Rizzo’s District 11, they were able to hold onto Arthur’s and Razer’s seats with the election of Democrats Maggie Nurrenbern and Patty Lewis, two current state representatives. Sen. Barbara Washington from Kansas City also won reelection.
“The Kansas City area will still have, I think, some good representation in the state legislature,” said Matthew Harris, a political science professor at Park University.
But in addition to losing Rizzo’s institutional knowledge and experience, there are real questions about whether members of the Freedom Caucus are interested in governing, Harris said.
While Nicola has not expressly said he would be a member of the hard-right caucus, which has frequently sparred with GOP leadership over a host of conservative issues, he’s largely expected to be aligned with the caucus.
Infighting between members of the hard-right Freedom Caucus and the more moderate Republican leadership has roiled the Missouri Capitol in recent years, derailing many of the GOP’s key priorities.
The 2024 session was among the least productive in recent history as Missouri lawmakers left Jefferson City after passing a modern record-low 28 non-budget bills.
The upcoming session comes at a key time for the Kansas City-area as local leaders grapple with a state-controlled police force, gun violence, protracted anger over property tax assessments and questions over the future of the Kansas City Chiefs and Royals. There will also likely be fights over abortion rights and minimum wage in the coming months.
“There’s kind of two things here. Like, No. 1, how much sort of, you know, experience does the Kansas City area lose in the legislature?” Harris said. “And then the other question is, like, is the Freedom Caucus going to continue to kind of gum things up?”
But Republicans appear confident that Nicola will be able to represent the district’s priorities. Cierpiot, the Lee’s Summit Republican, said he expects Nicola to be a “traditional Republican” once he takes office.
“I think a lot of people think he’s going to come down there and be disruptive, but I don’t think so,” he said. “I think once he gets involved, he’s going to be a conservative. But quite honestly, all Republicans are conservative.”
He added that a lack of Kansas City-area lawmakers in Senate Democratic leadership could be a “blind spot” for Democrats.
However, Gerling, the Jackson County Democrat, also expressed optimism for the future of the Kansas City-area despite Nicola’s victory.
“I am optimistic that everyone in the Missouri state Senate, regardless of political party, recognizes the economic driver that the greater Kansas City-area is for the state of Missouri,” he said.
But Gerling signaled that how Nicola decides to govern once in office could be key.
“We’ll just have to see how Nicola wants to pick up — if he just wants to be a yes man to the leadership in the caucus, or if he wants to represent the district, which is very, very purple,” he said.
“I think unfortunately for the people of that district, we know that he’s going to be more of a go along with the extreme right kind of model of government.”
