Democrats dominate Johnson County for third straight election, locking in blue shift
Johnson County has spent years trending toward Democrats, but voters in Tuesday’s election made clear the affluent, suburban county in the shadow of Kansas City is now a Democratic stronghold – one of the few in largely Republican-leaning Kansas.
The shift away from Republicans began more than a decade ago but has been speeding up in recent years, leading Johnson County to vote for President Joe Biden in 2020 after narrowly backing former President Donald Trump in 2016. The county’s blue shift culminated this week in a midterm election that delivered big wins for Democrats – including providing votes crucial to reelecting Gov. Laura Kelly.
“Johnson County has arrived at this point,” said state Sen. Cindy Holscher, an Overland Park Democrat.
The now dependable Democratic majority in Johnson County holds significant consequences for the state as a whole. As the county becomes less of a political battleground, the focus for Republicans in statewide races may shift toward more GOP-friendly ground in Sedgwick County, home to Wichita, the state’s largest city.
The growing Democratic base in Johnson County also comes as the county continues to consolidate political power. The area is growing – with a much-touted Panasonic battery plant potentially adding thousands of additional jobs in the coming years – while much of rural, western Kansas confronts a stagnant or shrinking population.
“Johnson County is not only the largest county, it is the most prosperous county in the state. It drives a large part of our economic development in the state,” former Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius said over the weekend. “Everything that happens in Johnson County ripples through the rest of the state in a dramatic way.”
Wins up and down ballot
The power of that influence was on full display this week.
Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids won a third term by 12 points in a redrawn 3rd Congressional District that centered on Johnson County but included new rural areas that had been expected to make the race more competitive for Republicans.
Davids has expanded her margin in Johnson County each election, going from a 5.8 percentage point victory over former Rep. Kevin Yoder in 2018 to a 6.7 percentage point victory in 2020 and finally a 15.3 percentage point victory over Republican Amanda Adkins in the county on Tuesday.
In Johnson County, Kelly beat Republican state Attorney General Derek Schmidt by more than 50,000 votes – 59% to 39%. The big margin provided the incumbent governor a cushion that, when combined with a narrow victory in Sedgwick County, offset losses in rural areas. Kelly ultimately won the statewide race by fewer than 17,000 votes.
Like Davids, Kelly also expanded her margin in Johnson County, going from a victory in the county by 16.7 percentage points in 2018 to a win by 19.7 percentage points this year.
Chris Mann, the Democratic candidate for Kansas attorney general, performed even better in the county, beating Republican Kris Kobach by 20 percentage points in the county and receiving over 3,300 more votes than Kelly.
But he underperformed the governor in the rest of the state and ultimately lost to Kobach.
Democrats scored victories in lower-tier races, too. Although technically nonpartisan, Roeland Park Mayor Mike Kelly soundly defeated County Commissioner Charlotte O’Hara for county commission chair in a race that was effectively a proxy Democrat vs. Republican contest.
Democrats also appeared to flip three Kansas House seats in Johnson County, according to unofficial results. Kansas Democrats are set to control 16 of Johnson County’s Kansas House districts, with Republicans having 11 seats if current results hold.
As vote counting continues, the legislative seat breakdown could still change. As of Wednesday night, Republican state Rep. Carl Turner of Leawood led his Democratic challenger Ace Allen by just 84 votes. Several other races were separated by a margin of fewer than 200 votes.
“Certainly within the House Democratic Caucus caucus, Johnson County’s a Democratic stronghold,” said state Rep. Stephanie Clayton, an Overland Park Democrat who won reelection on Tuesday.
“So yeah, I’m gonna say that we are,” said Clayton, who left the Republican Party to become a Democrat in 2018. “There’s no use denying it any longer. It’s happened.”
The Democratic victories even grabbed attention across state lines. Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas, who had campaigned for Davids, on Wednesday declared Johnson County a “blue county.”
“Welcome to the club!” Lucas wrote on Twitter.
Democrats credited the strong results in the county this week – as well as the long-term movement toward the party – on a variety of factors, but homed in on the idea that Republicans had grown increasingly disconnected from the central concerns of residents, such as strong schools and health care costs.
That includes Republicans’ unsuccessful push for an amendment called Value Them Both that would have removed abortion rights from the Kansas Constitution. Voters across the state — and in Johnson County — overwhelmingly rejected the proposal in August.
Overall, Democrats contend Republicans have moved to the right, pursuing a conservative vision that has alienated moderate voters. Republicans still hold an advantage in registered voters in Johnson County, even as Democrats easily win elections. As of September, the county had nearly 193,000 Republicans compared to 149,000 Democrats and 111,000 unaffiliated voters.
“I do think it’s that shift away from Kansas values to the most egregious conservative radicalism,” said state Rep. Jerry Stogsdill, a Prairie Village Democrat.
That diagnosis was reflected in the opinion of some Johnson County voters at the polls this week. Kari Blair, a 47-year-old speech therapist from Shawnee who voted on Tuesday, called the August amendment vote a wake-up call that she needed to pay more attention to politics so that her rights can’t be stripped without her having a say.
“Things can get taken if you’re not paying attention,” she said.
Republican Jan Kessinger represented Overland Park in the Kansas House from 2017 to 2021 and now sits on the Blue Valley school board. Kessinger, who endorsed Kelly, wondered on Tuesday night whether a Schmidt loss would push the Republican Party toward the center.
“I’m still a Republican and I hope we can get the Republican Party back to sensible Republicans and quit pandering to the far right,” Kessinger said as he attended Kelly’s election night watch party in Topeka.
Republicans not giving up
At a tactical level, Davids has helped Democrats down ballot by proving to be a popular figure in the last three general elections — a source of energy for the on-the-move party. Davids, Gov. Kelly and Mayor Kelly’s names on the ticket helped turn out Democrats, Clayton said.
Voter turnout in Johnson County appears to have been about 55%, according to Johnson County Election Commissioner Fred Sherman. He said the figure could inch up to 56 or 57% as mail ballots arrive and provisional ballots are counted.
The turnout is well below the last governor election in 2018, when 69% of voters cast ballots, Sherman said. But Davids and Kelly still captured larger slices of this year’s smaller pie.
Republicans say they are far from done contesting Johnson County, however, and insist they can remain competitive. Former Republican Gov. Jeff Colyer, a Johnson County plastic surgeon, said a “competent conservative message” plays well in the county and can win elections.
But Colyer also said the county is an expensive area to campaign in. He called on Republicans to devote more resources toward the county, especially for organizing.
“One of the smart things that Kelly and Sharice have done is, there was a massive door-knocking campaign during the primary on the Value Them Both amendment and they have largely kept that organization intact and are out there,” Colyer said in an interview prior to Election Day.
Schmidt, who conceded to Kelly on Wednesday, didn’t make Johnson County a central focus of his campaign. As of last week, public disclosures gave no indication his campaign had spent TV advertising dollars in the Kansas City media market, though ads on his behalf were run in the area from groups including the Republican Governors Association.
Still, Schmidt before the election called the Kansas City metro area “critically important” in the race. He told the Star he had worked to connect with voters on a personal level.
Schmidt said his campaign in the area had been a “grassroots ground game.”
The rapidly changing political tide in Johnson County has spurred a nascent conspiracy movement that baselessly suggests elections in the county have been fraudulent. Local election deniers have found encouragement in Johnson County Sheriff Calvin Hayden, who has been investigating elections in the county since 2021.
Hayden, a Republican, launched the investigation despite a lack of evidence of fraud after Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate to win the county in a century. Hayden said earlier this year that Johnson County is a great place to live, and noted that about 10,000 people move there each year.
“But they’re bringing some of their politics from the crummy place they live to my county,” he said of new residents. “And it’s not fun.”
Christopher Reeves, a Democratic consultant and a former Kansas Democratic national committeeman, said people have been moving into Johnson County from Jackson County, Missouri, and elsewhere without leaving their politics behind.
The county has grown dramatically in recent years. Johnson County had a population of about 544,000 in 2010. By 2021, the number of residents had jumped to 613,000.
Johnson is also growing more diverse. When former President George W. Bush first won the county in 2000, non-Hispanic whites made up 86% of the county. By 2021, the percentage had dropped to 78.7%.
Over time, that’s changed the political landscape of the county.
“If you’re a Republican and you’re looking at Kansas’s 3rd District and you’re saying to yourself you might never get it back,” Reeves said. “The case might be over for Kansas 3rd Congressional District.”
Mike Kuckelman, chair of the Kansas Republican Party, acknowledged the county is an area where the party has fallen short. The Overland Park resident said the party needs to address its messaging, saying that he believes most Johnson County residents have views that better align with the Republican platform than the Democratic platform.
Pressed for examples, he said taxes and economic issues likely loom larger in the county than social issues.
“People refer to Johnson County now as a purple county,” Kuckelman said. “We have a lot of work as a Republican party to do in Johnson County.”
Sandra Schmitz, a 64-year-old Overland Park resident who voted Tuesday, said she doesn’t normally participate in midterm elections but felt “too much is at stake” in terms of abortion rights and the future of democracy. She said she only voted for Democrats and that her social values clash with Republican candidates like Schmidt, who was endorsed by Trump.
“I’m scared to death that Trump is gonna get in there again,” she said, “and I’m gonna do everything I can to stop that.”
Clayton, the Democratic Overland Park state legislator, said a core issue is that GOP candidates have treated moderate Republicans as irrelevant.
“I mean, you do that at your own peril, frankly,” Clayton said. “And so I think we’ve seen what has happened as a result of that.”
The Star’s Andrea Klick contributed reporting
This story was originally published November 10, 2022 at 10:34 AM.
