Kansas ballot issue on abortion will be close. Here are three takeaways from polling
A Kansas City-based pollster is predicting that Kansans will narrowly pass a constitutional amendment removing the right to an abortion from the state-constitution.
Two weeks before Election Day and after early voting has already begun, pollster co/efficient released the first public poll data in the contest, which will be the first ballot test on abortion rights in a post-Roe America.
Co/efficient’s President Ryan Munce describes the firm as bipartisan but acknowledges they primarily work with Republican candidates. In 2020, the firm did polling for a PAC supporting Republican Roger Marshall’s Senate campaign.
The poll was first reported in FiveThirtyEight, a national news source that analyzes polling data. FiveThirtyEight provided input on the poll, Munce said.
The Value Them Both Association, the group campaigning to pass the amendment, called the poll evidence that Kansans do not want to see continued increases in abortion.
“We’re encouraged because we know Kansans do not support the radical pro-abortion agenda of the left,” spokeswoman Mackenzie Haddix said.
But opponents of the amendment said the close nature of the results underscored the motivation behind proponents decision to place the amendment on a primary ballot with traditionally lower turnout.
“They hope fewer Kansans vote so they can eliminate the constitutional rights of women to make private medical decisions,” Ashley All, a spokeswoman for Kansans for Constitutional Freedom, said.
Here are three main takeaways from the poll:
A tight race
Of the more than 1,500 Kansans surveyed earlier this week 47% said they planned to vote yes on the amendment, while 43% said they planned to vote no and 10% were undecided. The margin of error on the poll was 2.78%, which means the divide between the two sides could be as big as nearly seven points or as small as just over one.
Kansas is a traditionally red state with a long history of anti-abortion activism.
But the poll showed the state starkly divided along partly lines on whether to retain abortion rights in the state constitution: 68% of Republican respondents cited plans to vote yes, while just 10% of Democrats and 30% of independents planned to do the same.
Age divide
Age played a large factor in determining whether a survey respondent planned to vote yes or no.
Three quarters of the voters 34 or younger said they planned to vote against the amendment. The proportion of no votes generally dropped as voters got older, though.
Only 30% of voters 65 or older planned to vote against the amendment.
Primary elections generally have lower turnout, especially among Democrats in Kansas. And young voters historically have the lowest level of participation.
However, all age groups generally saw the amendment as increasing the importance of voting in August. Of the voters surveyed, 100% of the younger voters were aware of the amendment and 89% said the amendment had increased the importance of voting on the August ballot. The 35-44 age group and 65 and up age group saw similar importance, while 75% of voters in the 45-54 and 55-64 range considered the August vote more important.
Opposition based in the Kansas City Metro
Stark differences in planned voting behavior was evident based upon region.
Kansas’ 3rd Congressional District, which includes the Kansas City metro area and has been key for Democrats in recent years, was the only region in which voters were more likely to vote no than yes.
The 4th Congressional District, which includes Wichita, was divided on a 48% to 44% split. The mostly rural 1st Congressional District, which stretches from Lawrence west to the Colorado border, was predicted to vote yes by 13 points.
In the 2nd Congressional District, which includes northern Kansas City, Kansas, and much of eastern Kansas, 18% of the voters indicated they did not know how they would vote yet. However, 48% of the voters said they would vote yes and 34% said they would vote no.
This story was originally published July 20, 2022 at 12:33 PM.
