Vulnerable Republicans have Democrats eyeing end of GOP’s veto-proof majority in Topeka
Kansas Republicans are in no danger of losing their majority in the state legislature, an advantage they’ve held in both houses without interruption since 1992.
What is at risk — possibly hanging by a single seat in the Kansas House — is the two-thirds supermajority that allows the GOP to override Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s vetoes. It means leverage in virtually any legislative fight, and Democrats would like to take it off the table on Nov. 3
Ending the veto-proof majority would allow Democrats a role in shaping debates over the COVID-19 pandemic, Medicaid expansion, abortion, school funding and the upcoming redrawing of congressional and legislative boundaries based on the 2020 census.
The good news for Democrats is that recent gains, especially in an increasingly blue Johnson County, have put the goal within reach. The party needs a net gain of just one seat in the 125-member House next week to push Republicans under the threshold of the 84 needed to hold their supermajority. The 40-member Kansas Senate, where the GOP has enjoyed a supermajority since 1996, is more of a reach, with Democrats needing a gain of three seats.
Democrats would only need to claim one chamber to eliminate GOP veto control. A veto override requires supermajorities in both.
Democrats’ best opportunity may come in Johnson County, where Republican strength has eroded in the past decade. In 2012, Mitt Romney won the county by 16 points. Four years later, Donald Trump squeaked by with a 2% margin (while carrying the state by nearly 20 points).
In 2018, Democrat Sharice Davids won Johnson by six points as she unseated 3rd District incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Yoder. And heading into the 2020 election, a New York Times poll showed Democrats Joe Biden and Barbara Bollier leading among voters in the Kansas City region, which includes Wyandotte County, by double digits.
The growth on the legislative level has been robust. In 2014, there were just two Democratic state representatives from the county — now there are 10.
“I’ve been surprised how quickly...Johnson County have become more democratic,” said KU political science professor Patrick Miller. “These districts are vulnerable for Republicans but it’s hard to say how much.”
The most vulnerable Republicans are in districts where voters went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Laura Kelly in 2018. Conservatives who unseated longtime moderate Republican lawmakers in the August primary may also be at risk.
The loss of GOP moderates has prompted Democrats to run for those seats, with a message focused on ending the supermajority and retaining a centrist voice in the legislature.
“There are too many Republicans who rode on the coattails of being able to say well I have moderate friends. Those people left,” Kansas Democratic National Committeeman Chris Reeves said.
Among the races to watch are House District 78 in Olathe, where Kathy Meyer is challenging Speaker of the House Ron Ryckman. In Overland Park’s House District 20, Republican-turned-Democrat Mari-Lynn Poskin is running against conservative Republican Jane Dirks, who defeated moderate Jan Kessinger in the August primary.
State Reps. Cindy Holscher (D) and James Todd (R) are competing for the Senate District 8 seat vacated by retiring Senate Majority Leader Jim Denning. In Senate District 11 in Overland Park, Democrat Joy Koesten and Republican Kellie Warren are competing after Warren defeated moderate Republican John Skubal in the primary.
Stephanie Sharp, a former state representative and Kansas political consultant, said she believes the county is reacting to President Donald Trump and any swing to the left is temporary.
“Once Donald Trump is gone, Dems won’t hold those seats and they will switch back to extreme conservative,” said Sharp, a moderate Republican.
More willing to cross party lines?
Lawmakers in both parties said the fate of the supermajority will be an important factor in determining what the legislature accomplishes in 2021.
Ryckman said it will be essential for the Republican’s to protect the state’s economy from COVID-19-related restrictions and Kelly’s vetoes of any tax cuts and business loans
“The main thing is if we’re able to override some of the governor’s vetoes on policies that would definitely help Kansas trying to have an economic recovery from COVID,” Rykman said. “Our state cannot go through another round of vetoes on economic policies.”
Also at stake for the GOP is the future of the “Value Them Both Amendment,” which would revise the state constitution to assert that there no right to an abortion in Kansas. Earlier this year the measure fell five votes short in the House of being placed before voters on the August ballot.
In a statement to The Star, a spokesperson for Kelly said whatever the legislature’s partisan composition, Kelly will focus on Medicaid expansion, funding of schools and roads, economic development and a non-partisan redistricting committee.
“From Day One, Governor Kelly has committed to working across the aisle and to being a bipartisan leader, her priorities continue to reflect that approach. Regardless of the election outcome, she will stay focused on strengthening Kansas’ economy and keeping Kansans healthy,” the statement said.
One Johnson County Democrat running to unseat a Republican incumbent said the absence of a veto-proof majority might change the political calculations of some Republican lawmakers.
Ryckman’s challenger, Kathy Meyer, said that without a supermajority more Republicans may be willing to cross party lines to vote for such measures.
“One party or the other isn’t controlling everything,” she said. “This would help if we didn’t have the supermajority in either house, allowing and maybe forcing us to work together.”
Democrat Holscher, running in Senate District 8, said as Republicans in the legislature move further to the right, arriving at deals on Medicaid expansion and school funding will only become harder.
“We have some fundamental issues that we need to move forward on,” Holscher said. “We typically have an obstructionist or somebody who opposes those measures and with the legislature being made up the way it is it’s been difficult to pass anything.”
“If we don’t get a little bit different framework as far as the number of people who are moderates, Democrats working together, if we don’t get that in shape we’ll continue to have a lot of issues.
Four congressional maps, ‘guaranteed’
Kelly’s veto power will be especially consequential in 2021 as the state develops a plan for redistricting.
Kansas redraws legislative and Congressional lines once every 10 years using new census data. The 2010 map, enacted in 2012, was drawn by the courts after the legislature was unable to agree on a plan.
Kelly called for a non-partisan commission in early October after Senate President Susan Wagle told a Republican audience in Wichita that the supermajority would be essential to ensuring that Rep. Sharice Davids, the lone Democrat among the state’s four U.S. House members, is put in a newly-drawn district where it will be difficult to keep her seat.
“I guarantee you we can draw four Republican congressional maps but we can’t do it unless we have a two-thirds majority in the Senate and House,” Wagle said.
The Kansas GOP said losing the veto-proof majority would ensure that Kelly draws a map favorable to Democrats.
“If Kansans want fair maps that reflect the will of the majority in our state they should vote for Republicans,” C.J. Grover, spokesman for the Kansas GOP said. “If Kansans want maps drawn specifically to protect Governor Kelly’s friends like Sharice Davids in Congress and others in the Legislature, they can stay at home on November 3rd and not worry about it because rest assured those will be the governor’s priorities.”
Would the end of the supermajority actually create a more collaborative environment for lawmakers? Miller isn’t sure.
“Republican leaders have dismissed (Kelly) … They’ve said they’d govern without her,” Miller said. “(Loss of a supermajority) should put the need to compromise directly in the face of politicians in Topeka. That doesn’t mean they’ll realize it.”
