Why is KS Senate race more competitive in 2020? FiveThirtyEight cites these reasons
FiveThirtyEight — the election forecasting and political analysis site — took a closer look Tuesday at Kansas’ competitive Senate race between Republican Roger Marshall and Barbara Bollier.
The verdict? A few factors are making this contest closer than years past. One is the growing, poll-backed belief that President Donald Trump has lost some support in Kansas since winning the state by more than 20 points in 2016.
Another could be voter fatigue with some recent Kansas Republicans.
“The GOP brand in Kansas has been hobbled by not only Trump but also by former governor Sam Brownback, whose large tax cuts and large cuts to government programs were deeply unpopular,” Perry Bacon, Jr. writes, “and by Kansas’ former secretary of state Kris Kobach, who has been heavily involved in GOP efforts in Kansas and across the country to limit immigration and make it harder to vote.”
Bacon cited Bollier as an “ideal person to appeal to longtime Republicans who may be frustrated with the Trump-era GOP” based on her previous history in the party; she switched from Republican to Democrat in December 2018, in part because of disagreements with Trump. Bollier also could be gaining favor, Bacon says, because her state might be shifting some politically based on recent events.
Bacon cited another point in Bollier’s favor: She’s not going against an incumbent. The Kansas seat is coming open following Pat Roberts’ retirement, and previous studies have shown it’s easier for a challenger to win an open seat than an already occupied one.
But Republicans are still favorites in the race, Bacon says, because Kansas remains a red-leaning state. He described Marshall as “a strong Senate candidate,” who “isn’t particularly tied” to Brownback, Kobach or Trump.
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast continues to have Marshall ahead in each of its three iterations. The “deluxe” model — combining polls, fundraising patterns, past voting patterns and experts’ ratings — has Marshall winning in 74% of the site’s 40,000 simulations. The “classic” version — it doesn’t include experts’ ratings — has Marshall winning 68% of the time, while the polls-only “lite” version has him triumphant in 64% of outcomes.
The numbers remain close enough and the stakes high enough that late money is pouring in. On Wednesday, The Hill reported that Marshall would benefit from an undisclosed amount from the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which will use the money to support Marshall in a late advertising blitz.
Earlier this week, Bollier’s team announced that she had raised $13.5 million over the last three months.
