FiveThirtyEight has new House forecasts for KS and MO. What are Sharice Davids’ chances?
Kansas Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids has a 90% chance of winning re-election in her race against Republican Amanda Adkins for the 3rd District seat, according to political site FiveThirtyEight’s House forecast released Wednesday
FiveThirtyEight came to that number through its “deluxe” projections, which use polls, fundraising, voting patterns and other data to simulate the race 40,000 times.
Davids-Adkins doesn’t shift much when looking at less-robust versions of the projections. The site’s “classic” model — it doesn’t use experts’ ratings — keeps Davids’ odds at 90%. Meanwhile, the “lite” version, which only uses polling data, pushes Adkins’ chances to 11%.
Two other local races are only slightly more competitive, according to FiveThirtyEight’s deluxe model.
Republican Jake LaTurner has an 86% chance of defeating Democrat Michelle De La Isla in Kansas’ 2nd District. De La Isla fares better when only looking at polls, as FiveThirtyEight’s “lite” version has her chances of winning at 32%.
In Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District in the St. Louis suburbs, Republican incumbent Ann Wagner is given a 77% chance of winning compared to 23% for state Sen. Jill Schupp. Last week, Cook Political Report labeled the race a toss-up.
FiveThirtyEight projects landslide victories in Kansas and Missouri’s other nine contests. The following candidates have at least a 99% chance of winning: Republican Tracey Mann (Kan. 1st District), Republican Ron Estes (Kan. 4th District), Democrat Cori Bush (Mo. 1st District), Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer (Mo. 3rd District), Republican Vicky Hartzler (Mo. 4th District), Democrat Emanuel Cleaver (Mo. 5th District), Republican Sam Graves (Mo. 6th District), Republican Billy Long (Mo. 7th District) and Republican Jason Smith (Mo. 8th District).
The deluxe version gives Democrats a 93% chance of retaining control of the House. On average, it projects Democrats gaining four seats on Nov. 3.
This story was originally published October 7, 2020 at 11:00 AM.
