Here’s where the Kansas Senate race stands, according to 538’s just-released forecast
Though Kansas’ Senate race appears more competitive than it’s been in decades, Republican Roger Marshall remains favored to win over Democrat Barbara Bollier on Nov. 3, according to political site FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast released Friday.
FiveThirtyEight’s “deluxe” projections — which take into account polls, fundraising, voting patterns and other data — simulate each Senate race 40,000 times. The site gives Marshall a 78% chance of winning the seat compared to 22% for Bollier. That converts to a projected 52%-45% edge over Bollier in the popular.
Other models are only slightly more encouraging for the retired Mission Hills physician.
FiveThirtyEight’s “lite” forecast — which only uses polling data — gives Bollier a 33% chance of winning. Meanwhile, the “classic” version — fundraising and a state’s partisan lean along with polls — puts Bollier’s odds at 28%.
Republicans have won every Senate election by at least ten percentage points since 1974, when Bob Dole slipped by William Roy, 51%-49% in the aftermath of Richard Nixon and Watergate.
Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932.
This story was originally published September 18, 2020 at 1:24 PM.
