Kamala Harris’ popularity surges past Trump, Biden, poll finds. Will ‘honeymoon’ last?

Over the past 10 days, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen a sudden surge in popularity.

Since President Joe Biden ended his re-election bid and endorsed Harris on July 21, her favorability rating rose by eight points to 43%, according to a July 28 ABC News/Ipsos poll.

A July 29 Morning Consult poll found a similar result, with her favorability rating — in just one week — climbing seven points to a record-high 50%, a higher share than Biden or former President Donald Trump have reached all year.

But — to paraphrase a well-worn Harris line — her newfound popularity didn’t just fall out of a coconut tree, political experts told McClatchy News.

It exists in the context of the entire election cycle and is liable to fluctuate from now until November, particularly as the novelty of her campaign wears off and Republicans ramp up their attacks against her.

Honeymoon period

Harris, now less than two weeks into her campaign, is currently enjoying a honeymoon period, Susan Ohmer, a professor of modern communication at the University of Notre Dame, told McClatchy News.

“People are relieved that President Biden has removed himself from the running and pleased that someone who is obviously younger and more dynamic will run instead,” Ohmer, who studies presidential elections, said.

“Also, she is not well known to many,” Ohmer added. “And so there is a general enthusiasm without much specific knowledge.”

It’s likely that her popularity will continue to climb over the next few weeks, particularly as she chooses her running mate, who is expected to be announced by Aug. 6, when she reportedly will have her first rally in Philadelphia with her eventual pick, experts said.

The contenders on Harris’ shortlist may allow her to broaden her coalition to include voters who might otherwise be in her camp.

For example, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly — on account of his background in the military and support of the Second Amendment —could energize voters concerned about those issues, Ohmer said. And Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear‘s reputation in the Midwest could help Harris in crucial Rust Belt states.

Harris’ popularity will likely peak during the Democratic National Convention, which is scheduled for mid-August in Chicago, David Barker, a professor of government at American University, told McClatchy News.

The multi-day event, which will reportedly feature a keynote address from Biden, will be “focused on painting the ticket in the most favorable light possible,” Barker said.

“Historically, such conventions often produce what political scientists call a ‘step effect,’ meaning that the boost in candidate approval that follows a well-done convention is quite durable, relative to other types of campaign ‘effects,’” Barker said.

Settling into the race

As the summer draws to a close and adrenaline from the convention dissipates, it’s probable that Harris’ newfound popularity will come back down, experts said.

“A good rule of thumb is to wait until the week or two after Labor Day to see where the polls end up,” John Fortier, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a center-right think tank, told McClatchy News.

“Numbers can still move after mid September, but we will likely be past any Harris or Democratic honeymoon after her ascension to the nomination and the convention,” Fortier said.

By October, Harris’ numbers will likely “drop back down a little bit as the novelty and excitement begin to wear off,” Barker said.

By then, Republicans will also have honed their lines of attack against her, which will likely center on her stance on illegal immigration and economic policy, experts said.

“Trump will (also) try to craft negatives from her record in California and L.A., and some of that may stick,” Ohmer said.

Further, attention will likely be drawn to hot button, wedge issues within her own party, like the Israel-Hamas war.

“She is going to have to navigate a fine line between the U.S. long-standing support for Israel and the human rights situation with the Palestinians,” Ohmer said.

Additionally, by the fall, the “overwhelming flood of positive media coverage” will likely dissipate, Barker said.

Outlets will have had time to scrutinize her past, and they could reveal something previously unknown that could dampen the public perception towards her, Ohmer said.

On top of that, “as the election draws closer and closer, things get more and more polarized,” Barker said, adding that Democrats “will probably circle the wagons even harder and the GOP will hate her even more.”

“But I suspect that on Election Day, she will be at least where she is now or perhaps even a little bit higher,” Barker said.

An important caveat, though, is that because she’s a fresh face entering the race relatively late in the game, Harris’ polling numbers could prove more volatile than is typical, Fortier said.

“So she could get good upswings or bad downswings as voters see her intensely for the first time,” Fortier said.

This story was originally published July 31, 2024 at 12:01 PM with the headline "Kamala Harris’ popularity surges past Trump, Biden, poll finds. Will ‘honeymoon’ last?."