Will Trump assassination attempt affect the election? What happened after past attacks

The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania nearly cost him his life. Could it help him gain the presidency come November?

To answer this, it’s worth looking back at past presidents and presidential candidates who faced similar threats to their lives, according to historians.

Political violence at the highest levels of government has tragically been a long-running thread in the fabric of American history.

Since the 19th century, there have been 15 “direct assaults” on candidates, presidents-elect and sitting presidents, according to the Congressional Research Service.

In a handful of these instances, the targets, like Trump, were left wounded, but survived to continue campaigning for high office.

But, while the attacks may have had some ramifications, they did not dramatically alter the course of the elections that followed them, historians said.

Theodore Roosevelt

On Oct. 14, 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt was injured in an assassination attempt while running for a third nonconsecutive term under the Bull Moose Party.

While delivering a speech in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, a saloonkeeper named John Flammang Schrank shot Roosevelt in the chest.

“What followed is the stuff of political legend: ‘I have been shot!’ he declared, revealing his bloodied shirt,” Thomas Balcerski, a presidential historian at Eastern Connecticut State University, told McClatchy News.

Despite his wound, he carried on giving his speech, which lasted for 90 more minutes, Taylor Stoermer, a historian at Johns Hopkins University, told McClatchy News.

The bullet, which was slowed by a 50-page speech and eyeglasses case in Roosevelt’s pocket, remained in his chest for the rest of his life, according to his presidential library.

The dramatic event may have earned Roosevelt a spot on Mount Rushmore, but it didn’t lead to his re-election, Balcerski said.

“Perhaps the assassination attempt increased (his existing) popularity, but not enough to affect the electoral college outcome,” Lindsay Chervinsky, a presidential historian at Southern Methodist University, wrote in a recent Substack post.

Ultimately, the attempt on his life “didn’t impact the race,” and Roosevelt lost to Woodrow Wilson in November, Stoermer said.

Ronald Reagan

On March 30, 1981, President Ronald Reagan was shot in the chest by John Hinckley, Jr. while exiting the Hilton Hotel in Washington, D.C. His press secretary, a Secret Service agent and a policeman were also wounded.

“‘Honey, I forgot to duck,’ he quipped upon seeing a distraught First Lady Nancy Reagan,” Balcerski said.

After spending almost two weeks in a hospital, he returned to the White House, according to the Reagan Presidential Library.

Following the attempt on his life, his agenda on tax reform and military spending — now referred to as the Reagan Revolution — “kicked into high gear,” Balcerski said.

“Without the attempted assassination on Reagan, it is fair to say, the Reagan Revolution may never have come to pass,” Balcerski said.

Additionally, without the attack, the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act — named after his press secretary — would not have passed, Stoermer said.

Still, it likely did not alter the course of history “all that dramatically,” Chervisnky wrote in her post.

Reagan’s brush with death did give him a political boost, but it likely had little impact on the election three years later, which he won in a landslide, Stoermer said.

Donald Trump

It remains to be seen how Trump’s campaign for the White House will be impacted by the attempt on his life Saturday, July 13, but if history is any guide, it will not make or break his re-election bid, historians said. Still, there are several interesting factors at play.

One is the imagery surrounding the attack, Stoermer said. Photos of Trump defiantly throwing his fist in the air with a bloodied face “will go down in American history as one of its defining moments,” Stoermer said.

The photos, which are a powerful visual storytelling tool, could invigorate his base, he added.

They “will guarantee that every Trump supporter now will be a Trump voter in November,” Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster and strategist, wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, adding “Trump’s voters are energized, Biden’s voters are demoralized.”

“And because the shooting happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be most significant in Pennsylvania,” a crucial swing state, Luntz said.

But the attack on Trump may have little impact on the many voters who already oppose him, Balcerski said.

“The increased polarization of today’s political landscape,” Balcerski said, “means that fewer people will be changing their votes as a result of the attempted assassination.”

This story was originally published July 16, 2024 at 12:57 PM with the headline "Will Trump assassination attempt affect the election? What happened after past attacks."