Why are young voters backing Trump and older voters supporting Biden? Experts explain

Multiple polls in recent months have revealed a generational divide — perhaps a counterintuitive one — in levels of support for the two main presidential candidates.

President Joe Biden, in some polls, has performed better with older voters, while former President Donald Trump has done better with younger voters.

In an April 3 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll, Biden led Trump by eight points among voters 45 and older, while he trailed Trump by two points among Millennial and Gen Z voters.

A Fox News poll from March found that in a head-to-head matchup, Trump beat Biden among voters 65 and older by six points, while he led Biden with voters under 30 by 18 points.

Similarly, a Marist poll conducted in June in the battleground state of Pennsylvania found Biden had lost favor with voters under 45, while Trump’s lead among voters over 45 had “evaporated.” Now, both age cohorts are competitive.

These polls prompt the question: What factors could be responsible for this generational phenomenon? And just how real is it?

Four political and public opinion experts weigh in.

Why are younger voters favoring Trump?

A number of major issues, at home and abroad, could be driving younger voters away from Biden and toward Trump, multiple experts said.

“Any shift would be largely (caused by) disillusionment with Biden,” Robert Shapiro, a professor of government at Columbia University, told McClatchy News.

America’s involvement in Israel’s war against Hamas “is obviously a big reason for it,” Geoffrey Layman, a political science professor at the University of Notre Dame, told McClatchy News.

Many young voters “are disappointed with Biden’s efforts to secure a ceasefire and to protect Palestinians,” Paul Beck, a professor emeritus of politics at Ohio State University, told McClatchy News. “But they may not have factored in what Trump would do if he were re-elected.”

Inflation, and its effect on the housing market and rental prices, probably impacts younger voters more and could negatively impact their view of Biden, Layman said.

“To the extent that younger voters are more likely to be renters and/or have the added household costs of children, they’ll be feeling the ongoing effects of inflation more than home-owning empty nesters,” Roberto Suro, a professor at the USC Sol Price School of Public Policy, told McClatchy News.

However, it’s important to note that younger voters in particular tend to be less cemented in their political views, multiple experts said.

“My guess is that as they start thinking more seriously about the choice between Biden and Trump, they’ll return largely to Biden, though maybe not in the same numbers or turning out at the same levels as the Biden campaign would like,” Layman said.

Why are older voters favoring Biden?

Multiple factors could be driving older voters to support Biden at higher levels than their younger counterparts — though the phenomenon “is a bit more of a mystery,” Layman said.

For one, it’s likely that older voters are less concerned about Biden’s age and related decline, Layman said.

Generational change probably comes into play as well. “The majority of senior citizens are now baby boomers, which is a generation that was much more liberal when it came of age politically than earlier generations,” Layman said.

They also grew up during an era with less political polarization and more respect for politicians and major institutions, he said.

“For them, the idea of a convicted felon being the nominee of one of the two major political parties may be a much more unusual and troubling thing than it is for voters who have come of age politically in the last 10 years,” Layman said.

Older voters are also more reliant on social welfare programs, which are often supported by Democrats and opposed by Republicans, Layman said.

These voters “may worry about the threats (Trump) and the Republicans might pose to Medicare and Social Security,” Beck said.

Additionally, “the post-pandemic economy has been kinder to older people than to the young,” Suro said, noting that those raising young children are more likely to feel the effects of inflation.

How real is this phenomenon?

“We need to be cautious in making too much of the polls now,” Beck said.

The results reflect respondents’ sentiments at the time they were interviewed, and since the election is months away, a lot can change, Beck said.

“Although most likely voters already have clear commitments, others are just beginning to tune in to the campaign,” Suro said.

Additionally, polls that use registered voters are less reliable than those that use likely voters, Beck said, adding that “state polls are notoriously unreliable and usually have small sample sizes.”

Additionally, the generational divide has not been borne out in all recent polls. For example, a Quinnipiac University poll from March found Biden leading Trump by 20 points among voters under 35.

Still, Shapiro said that there has been a distinguishable dip in support for Democrats among young voters.

“Democratic candidates have done (well) among younger voters — by 20% or more in recent elections,” Shapiro said. “This time my take on all the polls I have seen is that it has dropped off on the order of 5 points, which can make a difference in close key state elections.”

This story was originally published June 14, 2024 at 9:12 AM with the headline "Why are young voters backing Trump and older voters supporting Biden? Experts explain."