Biden won’t be on ballot in nation’s first primary. So do his opponents have a chance?
When New Hampshire voters head to the Democratic primary polls early next year, one name will conspicuously be missing from the ballot: Joe Biden.
The president opted not to file for the historically “first in the nation” race in order to comply with a new Democratic National Committee primary schedule — one proposed by Biden — which designates South Carolina as first in the lineup, according to the Associated Press.
However, New Hampshire law mandates that it holds the country’s first primary, according to the AP, and state officials have said they plan to follow it in spite of the DNC’s reshuffling.
Biden’s absence from the ballot will shake up the Granite State’s primary, a contest that has had outsize influence in nominating presidential candidates, according to experts. He could still win — as voters have the option to write in candidates — but other White House hopefuls may pounce on the opportunity to make headway.
The shakeup
“Lesser-known candidates may well make efforts to use this to raise their visibility,” Matthew McDermott, a Democratic strategist, told McClatchy News.
So far, the only other declared candidate for the Democratic nomination is Marianne Williamson, an author and spiritual leader.
“New Hampshire’s primary should not be fodder for the shenanigans of a political party,” Williamson said in a statement, referencing the view held by some that the DNC’s schedule change was implemented to benefit Biden, who was carried to victory by South Carolina in the 2020 Democratic primaries.
“I will be campaigning there in deference to the laws of the Granite State, not staying away in deference to the rules of the DNC,” Williamson added.
Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips is also expected to enter the race, Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire (UNH), told McClatchy News.
As these long-shot opponents try to make gains, Biden’s campaign will have to decide how to frame the contest for New Hampshire voters, Scala said.
“They could just do a benign neglect sort of thing,” Scala said. “Or they could say, ‘Hey, no, we actually think South Carolina should be first, period, and therefore we discourage New Hampshire Democrats from even showing up because we don’t recognize the primary is legitimate.’”
The Biden team is not expected to launch a formal write-in campaign, “which would go against the same rules that led to his decision not to file,” McDermott said. But he “would anticipate an organic, grassroots effort to turn out voters and write-in the president.”
Biden victory expected
Even though Biden is at a disadvantage, he is still favored to win a majority of the votes due to a number of factors, multiple experts said.
“Dean Phillips starts in New Hampshire with near zero name ID,” Scala said. “Marianne Williamson, the last time I checked, I think she was (polling) at single digits…so, I mean, 50% doesn’t doesn’t seem like an especially high bar” for Biden.
“It’s not like I’m running to Vegas and betting my house on it, but I feel he’ll reach that threshold,” Leslie Marshall, a Democratic strategist and Fox News Contributor, told McClatchy News.
Only 6% of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire selected Williamson as their first choice, versus 78% who picked Biden, according to a September UNH poll. Support for Phillips, who has not formally announced, was not polled.
In addition to his dominance in the polls, Biden, as the incumbent president and longtime fixture in national politics, also has the advantage of name recognition, which is the “number one” factor affecting voters’ decisions, Marshall said.
But whether or not Biden wins in the Granite State does not matter in the grand scheme of things, Melissa Michelson, professor of political science at Menlo College, told McClatchy News.
“He’s going to be the nominee of the party regardless of what happens in New Hampshire,” Michelson said.
“Elections are purely based on numbers,” Marshall said, “and the state of New Hampshire does not have the numbers to put a candidate over the finish line or to sink them.”
Biden’s “nightmare scenario”
Despite New Hampshire’s relatively few delegates and Biden’s favorable odds of winning the primary, a less-than-stellar performance could still spell trouble for him, according to several experts, citing historical precedent.
“Frankly, I’m not surprised Biden is completely avoiding New Hampshire,” Frank Luntz, a political consultant and pollster, told McClatchy News. “He wants to avoid a Lyndon Johnson / George Herbert Walker Bush moment.”
Although President George H.W. Bush won 58% of the Republican primary vote in New Hampshire in 1992, his margin of victory was seen as unsettlingly small. His results “carried many ominous signs” and caused “alarm in the White House,” according to The New York Times.
Before Bush, President Lyndon Johnson, like Biden, opted to keep his name off the primary ballot in New Hampshire in 1968. “He thought it was kind of beneath him to have to run for re-nomination,” Scala said.
“The funny thing is — well not so funny if you’re Biden — but the funny thing is that Johnson wins, but his margin of victory is rather small,” Scala said. “The message that the national political media take out of that is, ‘Look at how weak Johnson is.’ And then of course, a few weeks later, Johnson says, ‘You know what, I’m not running for re-election.’”
If Biden were to win a similarly slim majority in New Hampshire, he’s in danger of being framed in the same way — as a weak candidate not supported by rank-and-file Democrats, Scala said. “That would be the nightmare scenario,” he said.
He would then face much more scrutiny in the subsequent primaries and could confront calls to step aside for a stronger candidate, he said.
“He would really need to blow the doors off in South Carolina to try to put this to bed,” Scala said.
This story was originally published October 26, 2023 at 11:31 AM with the headline "Biden won’t be on ballot in nation’s first primary. So do his opponents have a chance?."