How the Electoral College could be hit by calamity this fall

You’ve likely heard the chatter about a contested Republican National Convention in July. The premise: front-runner Donald Trump enters the convention with less than a majority of pledged GOP delegates, leading to a divisive floor fight over the party’s nominee.

Pundits have suggested, darkly, that chaos would result. Trump has predicted riots, although it isn’t clear if he meant the claim as a warning — or a threat.

Either way, strong political winds would blow.

But they would be a gentle spring zephyr compared with the Category 5 hurricane possible four months later if the general election is inconclusive and the nation’s Electoral College system is once again put to the test.

For all who skipped government class, a review:

In a presidential election year, each state and the District of Columbia names presidential electors equal to its number of U.S. House members plus two. Those electors, not voters, actually cast the votes for president. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.

There are a couple of ways for the electoral system to crash. The most obvious is a three-way race: mainstream Republicans, upset with a Trump nomination, might find a legitimate third candidate who could compete in a handful of states in November. It’s possible a three-person race would divide electoral votes evenly, leaving all candidates short of the electors needed to win the presidency.

But there are other two-candidate outcomes that seem equally scary. Trump could win the popular vote, yet lose to the Democrat in the electoral vote. Or the opposite might occur — Trump could become president despite losing at the ballot box.

That’s what happened in 2000, when electors put George Bush in the White House over national popular vote winner Al Gore. While some people are still angry at that outcome, most Americans have accepted the odd results that year.

Can we imagine the response, though, if Donald Trump takes the White House after losing the popular vote? Today’s protests might seem quaint by comparison. And if Trump wins the popular vote, yet doesn’t get enough electors … well, Trumpites are already pretty angry.

America had a chance to fix its quaint Electoral College system after Bush and Gore, but chose not to. There have been half-hearted attempts, but nothing definitive.

If there’s a contradictory November outcome, it’s possible — perhaps likely — that enormous pressure will be brought to bear on electors to vote their consciences, even if it contravenes a state’s popular vote. The six electors in Kansas and 11 in Missouri are legally allowed to vote for whomever they want.

If there’s a difference between the popular vote and the electoral vote winner, they may be asked to do so.

And if there’s a three-way race, and the presidential election is tossed into the House of Representatives? Don’t ask.

The arguments for keeping the Electoral College always wilt under a microscope — the system doesn’t protect small states, it doesn’t ensure national candidates, it doesn’t guarantee a two-party system. It’s a set-up waiting for a disaster.

We may get that disaster this year. If so, the public may finally be convinced it’s time to discard the Electoral College.

This story was originally published March 21, 2016 at 12:19 PM with the headline "How the Electoral College could be hit by calamity this fall."