Clinton, Trump post narrow leads on Sanders and Cruz in final Iowa Poll

Donald Trump, the 2016 game changer, moved to a 5-point lead here over his closest challenger in the last major poll released before Monday’s first-in-the-nation caucuses.

Hillary Clinton held a smaller edge, 45 percent to Bernie Sanders’42 percent, in the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Iowa Poll released Saturday night.

Questions within the poll revealed that Democrats were ready for a woman president, that two-thirds said they could back a Democratic socialist like Sanders and that Republicans thought Trump had the best chance to win in November.

Notably, said pollster Ann Selzer, the survey showed an electorate itching for a government makeover.

“They want disruption,” she said.

The poll found just 9 percent of likely Republican caucus voters still undecided and only 5 percent of Democrats searching for a favorite. Yet nearly half, 45 percent, of Republicans said they might still change their minds.

The caucuses tip off at 7 p.m. Monday — an evening with an iffy weather forecast that could see snow and sleet across parts of the state, capable of lowering turnout.

Among the Republicans, Trump had 28 percent and Ted Cruz 23 percent. Cruz dropped 8 points from where he stood in the poll in early December. In recent weeks, Trump has questioned whether the Texas senator is a “natural born” citizen capable of holding the presidency. His mother was a citizen when he was born in Canada.

Marco Rubio registered the third most popular choice, with 15 percent. Carson, who had earlier shot to the lead in Iowa, stood at 5 percent. Rand Paul was the choice of 5 percent, Chris Christie drew 3 percent, while Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum had 2 percent each.

The poll marked the first time Trump had led in the Iowa Poll since August, but fell in line with other polls that showed him gaining on, and often surpassing Cruz.

Martin O’Malley slipped to 3 percent among Democrats.

The poll showed only 40 percent of respondents would be attending their first caucuses, about the same as four years ago. In 2008, when Barack Obama logged a surprising win over Clinton, the number of newcomers was far greater. Sanders has said he needs a large turnout, including many first-timers, to win in Iowa.

Selzer said only about half of the Republicans in the poll identified themselves as evangelical Christians. If that number is higher — it was 57 percent in 2012 — Cruz has a shot at overcoming Trump.

The poll has a margin of error of 4 percent. That means Trump’s true support could be as high 32 percent or as low as 22 percent. But a greater possibility exists his backing is closest to 28 percent.

Among the Democrats, that margin of error suggests the Clinton holds only a very slight lead.

Trump scored far better than the competition on at least three questions: who do voters think is mostly likely to win the general election, who would America’s enemies fear most and who would most be an agent of needed change. Voters told pollsters they thought Cruz, however, had the most needed knowledge and experience.

For Democrats, Sanders scored best on the often-critical question of which candidate they thought most cared about them, beating Clinton on that score 51 percent to 37 percent.

Bill Clinton, whose infidelities have been a talking point for Trump, does not appear to hurt her with Democrats. Nearly three-fourths said they thought he was a good president with ideas for taking the country forward. And 87 percent said they either approve of how Hillary Clinton handled his affairs or don’t care.

This story was originally published January 30, 2016 at 6:35 PM with the headline "Clinton, Trump post narrow leads on Sanders and Cruz in final Iowa Poll."