The making of a president: Iowa caucus storm edition

We may soon see what happens when the high pressure world of presidential politics gets hit with a low pressure weather front.

An inch or three of snow looks likely late Monday in Des Moines, preceded by snow showers through the evening.

The caucuses kick off at 7 p.m. and can stretch beyond 9 p.m.

Snow showers coming down around the time the caucuses start, possibly icing roads, could douse turnout.

Weather across the rest of the state is no more promising.

Forecasts predict colder temperatures and five to eight inches of snow in Council Bluffs. To the east in the Quad Cities area, Monday looks to bring light freezing rain.

Who does it help? Conventional wisdom suggests Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former secretary of state Hillary Clinton. They’ve built the sturdiest get-out-the-vote organizations. And their followers (Cruz draws religiously motivated voters, Clinton polls well with older, regularly voting Democrats) are seen as the most reliable of the electorate.

So their vote may not be blizzard-proof, or even impervious to sleet, but still more weather-resistant.

This being politics, it’s easier to see it another way. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders draws younger and, arguably, more revved-up backers. Many haven’t been to caucuses before. And weather notwithstanding, large questions loom about translating big crowds for his speeches into caucus night voters.

But might those young enthusiasts be more willing to brave some messy weather than their parents and grandparents? Nobody knows.

Likewise, Donald Trump is seen as drawing new, excited voters to the Republican Party. But like the Sanders crowd, there’s no telling if they’ll turn out to vote on even a clear night. But might they be more motivated than ordinary voters? Again, it’s unknown.

These coming galoshes caucuses will answer all your questions soon enough.

This story was originally published January 30, 2016 at 1:04 PM with the headline "The making of a president: Iowa caucus storm edition."