If Missouri’s presidential primary were held tomorrow, Donald Trump would likely sweep 49 of the state’s 52 Republican convention delegates, a new poll reveals.
The survey —for Missouri Scout, a private news service, conducted by Remington Research — shows Trump leading Sen. Ted Cruz, 33 percent to 23 percent, among likely Missouri Republican primary voters.
But the more important information is embedded in the poll’s results as broken down by congressional district.
If no primary candidate receives 50 percent of the vote — a likely outcome — Missouri’s GOP convention votes are allocated by congressional district. The state no longer allocates all of its delegates to the statewide winner.
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In 2016, the statewide winner will receives nine delegates. Five delegates are then available in each of eight congressional districts, for a total of 49 available delegates.
The survey shows Trump leads in every congressional district in the state. If those results were to hold, Trump would win all of those available delegates (three so-called super-delegates would remain officially uncommitted.)
Cruz is second in every district in Missouri. He’s close in the 7th District, trailing Trump by just one point, 29 percent to 28 percent. Cruz trails Trump by four points in the 6th District, Rep. Sam Graves’ district. Graves has endorsed Cruz.
Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe will undoubtedly take the poll results as a challenge. It would be embarrassing for Cruz to finish out of the money in the state where Roe made his reputation, and remains an influential political figure.
Nearly half of those surveyed said “terrorism” or “border security” should be the top priority of the president. Those issues play significantly into Trump’s appeal.