Poll shows Marshall and Kobach in tight race for Kansas GOP Senate nomination
A new poll shows Rep. Roger Marshall has closed the gap with Republican rival Kris Kobach in Kansas’ open seat Senate race, but also indicates the Kansas congressman remains largely unknown to many GOP primary voters.
The survey, which found the two Republicans in a dead heat for the nomination, was paid for by the Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has endorsed Marshall’s candidacy in the race to replace retiring Sen. Pat Roberts.
Marshall, who represents western Kansas, narrowly leads all candidates with 29 percent in the survey of 1,246 likely GOP primary voters, according to the poll, conducted January 19 and 20 by the Kansas City-based firm co/Efficient.
Kobach, the former Kansas secretary of state and party’s 2018 nominee for governor, has support from 28 percent, which puts Marshall’s 1-point lead within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
The data was weighted to reflect the anticipated demographic makeup of the GOP primary electorate, including the firm’s assumption that 45 percent of voters will be 65 or older. The unweighted data also shows a 1-point race.
Kansas Senate President Susan Wagle polled at 6 percent, while 9 percent said they favored someone else. The survey did not include other candidates, such as Johnson County Commissioner Dave Lindstrom or Kansas Board of Education member Steve Roberts, by name.
Another 28 percent said they were undecided, roughly equal to Marshall and Kobach’s levels of support.
The survey runs counter to the party’s early internal polls, which had Kobach far ahead all other contenders if Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not enter the race.
Marshall has been trying to cement support from establishment Republicans since Pompeo earlier this month told Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell that he did not plan to run.
“Republican primary voters are waking up, the race is taking shape, and Marshall has the momentum,” said Travis Smith, a consultant for the Keep Kansas Great PAC, which has a stated mission to “support freedom-loving conservative candidates who are pro-Trump, pro- Kansas, pro-life and pro-Second Amendment.”
Kobach accused the media of trying to manipulate polling data and disputed the legitimacy of the poll because it did not include the entire field of candidates.
“Kansans are smarter than political insiders. This result is inconsistent with every other poll that we have seen. The methodology was obviously intended to achieve this biased result,” said Kobach, contending the poll oversampled the 1st Congressional District, which Marshall represents.
The poll was weighted to draw 27 percent of primary voters from the district, which is the most Republican-leaning district in the state. Ryan Munce, president of co/Efficient, noted in an email that voters in the district traditionally have a higher turnout rate for GOP primary elections than voters in the rest of the state.
“Anyone familiar with statewide Kansas politics knows this to be true,” he said.
While Marshall performs well in the primary matchup, the poll also shows that many Republican voters are unfamiliar with the two-term congressman. Fifty percent said they had no opinion of Marshall.
Another 39 percent said they had a favorable opinion, with 11 percen unfavorable. Marshall was elected to the House in 2016 after a successful primary challenge against then-Rep. Tim Huelskamp.
For comparison, 45 percent had a favorable opinion of Kobach, with 37 percent unfavorable. Only 18 percent had no opinion of Kobach after his previous statewide run, according to the poll.
Patrick Miller, a political scientist at the University of Kansas, said the results underscore Marshall’s “need to establish his image for voters” after only three years in the House before Kobach can do it for him.
This story was originally published January 21, 2020 at 12:27 PM.
