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Nate Silver has Greg Orman favored to win Kansas senate seat

Nate Silver has made a name for himself getting his presidential forecasts spot-on perfect.

So when he speaks about U.S. Senate races, people listen.

His latest thinking on Kansas’ much-talked-about U.S. Senate race?

Independent Greg Orman has a 61 percent chance of beating Republican incumbent Pat Roberts. His expected winning margin is 3 percentage points.

Silver bases his predictions on all manner of polls and political data.

Despite his prediction in the Kansas race, Silver says Republicans have a 58.5 percent chance of winning a majority. And Democrats have a 41.5 percent chance of keeping their majority.

That goes against conventional wisdom, which suggests that if Roberts loses in Kansas, Republicans probabaly won’t regain control of the chamber.

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