How many of Kansas City’s COVID cases are from omicron? Here’s what the data shows
The omicron variant is on its way to becoming the dominant strain of COVID-19 in Kansas City, according to local experts.
Readers asked The Star’s Service Journalism team about how many of the new COVID-19 cases around Kansas City are from the omicron variant, and about the severity of the illness from the variant. We looked into if omicron is actually “milder” in Kansas City, and we talked to experts who are studying the virus’ spread around the metro to see how prevalent omicron is here. This is what we learned.
One of the top epidemiologists from Missouri’s Department of Health and Senior Services, Nathan Koffarnus, said that the proportion of cases in the Kansas City area from omicron is growing rapidly.
How much omicron is in Kansas City?
Koffarnus and a team at Missouri’s DHSS test human specimen samples from COVID-19 PCR tests each week to see which variants are present.
Based on that data and according to Koffarnus, the omicron variant was present in about 5% of samples from the Kansas City metro area in the first two weeks of December and jumped to 48% in the last two weeks of December. That number is on track to keep increasing significantly.
“We’ve seen cases in the state explode, and we think it’s largely because of omicron,” he said. “Eventually it will reach 100% and will be all omicron, until some newer, better variant comes along and out competes it.”
The percent of omicron is probably even higher
Wastewater samples from around Kansas City add to the evidence of omicron’s rapid spread, according to University of Missouri molecular microbiology and immunology professor Marc Johnson.
“We sequence the wastewater from Kansas City sewersheds, and in all of them, [Omicron] is starting to become the dominant sequence that we see,” Johnson said.
Since the wastewater samples have a slightly quicker turnaround compared to the data from human specimens, the sewershed project serves as an early warning system for other public health officials trying to protect local communities, Koffarnus said.
Regardless of variant, community spread is high
In addition to omicron becoming more prevalent, the overall amount of the virus is increasing dramatically in Kansas City’s wastewater, which we’re also seeing reflected in record-breaking case numbers.
All of the wastewater collection sites in the Kansas City metro area have a viral load that has either increased by 40% or more in the last week, or by 25% in the last two weeks, according to the tracking map published by the Sewershed Surveillance Project.
“If you look at the raw wastewater numbers, you will see many of the Kansas City sewersheds are at the highest level they have been since we started testing there,” Johnson said.
The omicron variant was first detected in the Northwest region of the state and in Kansas City according to Johnson. There is less omicron presence in rural areas of the state, however, Johnson said it’s just a matter of time before those areas start to see more omicron cases as well.
Beyond just Kansas City, omicron is by far the dominant variant in the region
The CDC’s variant tracker shows omicron makes up more than 90% of cases in a region that includes Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa.
The data from Koffarnus and his team at Missouri’s DHSS also contributes to the CDC’s predictions about how much each variant is in the overall region.
Nationally, omicron makes up more than 98% of cases in the United States.
The region that includes Missouri and Kansas still has a significant amount of the delta variant presence in comparison to other regions, which local health experts say is contributing to the ongoing record hospitalizations.
Omicron is still dangerous
The omicron variant can be mild in some cases, but it spreads fast and in some instances it can still lead to hospitalization, according to Koffarnus.
“Some research out there seems to indicate that, if it gets severe enough that somebody is hospitalized with omicron, at that point, the severity is probably roughly the same [as other variants],” he said.
What is clear is that omicron seems to be more transmissible which is a problem for local hospitals working to treat those infected.
“For example , if it’s half as severe, but it infects two times as many people, hospitalizations will still be a problem because more people are getting it,” he said.
Kansas City area hospitals continue to be overwhelmed and short on beds in the wake of this latest COVID-19 wave.
“We’re not done,” Koffarnus said. “I think we still got some time to go before we come out the other end of this.”
This story was fueled by questions from readers. Do you have a question about the latest wave of COVID-19 in Kansas City? Ask us at kcq@kcstar.com or using the form below.
This story was originally published January 11, 2022 at 10:51 AM.