Gathering for Christmas? See COVID risk levels in your county with this map
Coronavirus infections are surging in nearly every state across the country, overwhelming hospitals and closing schools in some areas.
With Christmas a week away, it’s important to assess how risky it is to gather for the holidays, especially if celebrations involve visitors traveling from other states.
An interactive map developed by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology shows how risky gatherings of different sizes are in each U.S. county, based on at least one attendee being infected with the coronavirus.
“These rates are updated daily as a means to visualize the risk associated with gatherings,” the researchers wrote in their study published Nov. 9 in the journal Nature Human Behavior. “The website provides data-driven information to help individuals and policy makers make prudent decisions (for example, increasing mask-wearing compliance and avoiding larger gatherings) that could help control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, particularly in hard-hit regions.”
Users can select an “event size” anywhere from 10 to 5,000 people and watch as the map changes color based on risk level. Light yellow areas have risk levels below 1%, while dark red regions have risk levels above 99%.
Hovering over individual counties will reveal your chances of contracting COVID-19, according to the study.
The map combines documented coronavirus cases at the county level and data from antibody test results, which reveal more infections than reported by state health departments.
For that reason, the researchers assume there are five times more cases than are being reported, but they note that “in places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher.”
As of Friday, Midwestern states, Texas and California appear to have the most red-colored counties no matter the event size.
Several counties have risk levels above 98% for gatherings with 20 people, including Dewey County in South Dakota, Crockett County in Texas, Lincoln County in Colorado, Lassen County in California and Alfalfa County in Oklahoma.
Events with 50 people cause the entire map to bleed mostly red-colored counties.
That’s because large gatherings that take place indoors are cesspools for viral spread, and have been linked to large outbreaks of the coronavirus, experts sayr.
A November study found that reducing indoor maximum capacity in spaces such as gyms, hotels, cafes, religious centers and restaurants by 20% could cut down new infections by about 80%, McClatchy News reported.
“By integrating real-time information aggregated via state health departments nationwide along with a simple statistical model, the website is able to capture, calculate and disseminate information relevant to decision-making by the public that could help reduce risk and new transmission,” the researchers wrote in their study.
“Precisely because of under-testing and the risk of exposure and infection, these risk calculations provide further support for the ongoing need for social distancing and protective measures. Such precautions are still needed even in small events, given the large number of circulating cases,” they said on their website.
This story was originally published December 18, 2020 at 9:20 AM with the headline "Gathering for Christmas? See COVID risk levels in your county with this map."
