New coronavirus data shows two opposite trends in Missouri over month-long span
Despite decreasing hospitalizations because of COVID-19 in Missouri, the rate of new coronavirus cases is rising, according to data from the state’s Department of Health and Senior Services.
The Star analyzed key metrics for a month of coronavirus data in Kansas and Missouri spanning from May 14 through June 11. The dates were chosen because more recent data from state health departments is incomplete.
Data kept by The Star tracking COVID-19 cases and deaths in the Kansas City metropolitan area show a recent increase in daily new cases as the area reached its highest number of new cases Thursday.
As those numbers rose, health officials in Kansas City said they were considering creating a requirement that masks be worn in public to stem the spread of the virus.
In a daily news briefing Thursday, Dana Hawkinson, medical director of infection prevention and control at the University of Kansas Health System, said hospital admissions are continuing to keep pace with or exceed discharges.
In interviews, Jennifer Tolbert, a director of state health reform at the Kaiser Family Foundation, Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Lee Norman, Kansas Health Institute Senior Analyst Charles Hunt, and Enid Schatz, the chair of the University of Missouri’s public health department, pointed to hospitalizations as a key metric for decision making and understanding the spread of the virus, along with the rate of new cases and the percent of people who test positive.
Hospitalizations
The seven day average of new COVID-19 hospitalizations in Missouri reduced by about 200 during the two week period analyzed by The Star. The state tracks total number of patients in the hospital with COVID-19 each day.
In mid-May there were about 804 people hospitalized. On June 11 there were 615.
Health officials and researchers say hospitalization data can provide a picture of the impact of the pandemic that is independent of testing data.
Kansas does not provide figures on daily hospitalizations. It tracks the cumulative number of hospitalizations, of which there have been 1,082.
Kansas also provides the number of new hospitalizations by day. There were 8 admissions on June 11, according to the most recent data.
New cases
The average number of new cases reported in Kansas decreased during the month-long period. At the beginning of the period the state reported an average of 181 new cases each day. In late May and early June the number decreased to 112 cases per day before rising to 129 cases.
In Missouri, the average number of new cases increased during the period. The average number of new cases was 211 at the beginning of the month, it raised to 305 by June 1 and dropped to 278 by June 11.
Experts say individuals should look for the number to be consistently dropping for an extended period of time.
Positivity rate
The percentage of COVID-19 tests that come back positive is an indicator, experts said, of who is able to be tested in an area. If the number is low, it means that more asymptomatic people are being tested.
Tolbert, of the Kaiser Family Health Foundation, said the number should ideally be at or below 3%.
In Kansas the rate of positive tests fell by half between May 15 and June 11. On May 15, the state averaged a nearly 9% positivity rate. By June 11, the number was down to a 3.94%.
Missouri followed a similar trend, dropping from 5.08% in May to 3.82% in June.
