Coronavirus death toll projections increase. Here’s why, according to health officials
Social distancing has helped “flatten the curve” of the coronavirus, but University of Washington public health researchers say the death toll from this wave of the pandemic is forecast to hit about 74,000 in the United States.
The researchers with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose coronavirus model is cited often by the White House and states, increased the prediction for U.S. deaths from about 67,600 in their newest forecast.
The model runs through Aug. 4, but the projected total of 74,073 deaths is reached on July 15. The current model projects no additional deaths between July 15 and Aug. 4.
Almost a million people have tested positive for the coronavirus in the United States as of Tuesday morning, according to Johns Hopkins University. More than 56,000 people in the country have died from the virus.
The projected death toll is far from an exact number, but is in the middle of a predicted range.
“Based on the latest available data, the COVID-19 epidemic’s first wave could cause 74,073 cumulative deaths (estimate range 56,563 to 130,666) in the U.S. The total from today’s release is higher than average predictions published on April 22 (67,641, with an estimate range of 48,058 to 123,157),” the institute said Monday.
The United States hit the peak of the pandemic on April 15, the scientists said. The model assumes social distancing measures will stay in place until the end of May, but some states, including Georgia, South Carolina and Texas, are already starting to reopen parts of their economies.
“At least part of this increase is due to many states experiencing flatter and thus longer epidemic peaks. Further, updated data indicate that daily COVID-19 deaths are not falling very quickly after the peak, leading to longer tails for many states’ epidemic curves,” the institute said.
“In combination — less abrupt peaks and slower declines in daily COVID-19 deaths following the peak — many places in the U.S. could have higher cumulative deaths from the novel coronavirus.”
Institute director Christopher Murray said that if states start opening too soon, the death toll from COVID-19 could be even higher, CBS News reports.
“While most states seem to have passed their epidemic peaks, seven — Hawaii, Mississippi, Texas, Wyoming, Utah, Nebraska, and North Dakota — may be experiencing their peaks now or could be in the coming weeks,” the Institute said.
“Many states are seeing daily COVID-19 deaths falling more slowly than the speed at which deaths rose to peak levels. These slower trajectories are contributing to higher cumulative COVID-19 deaths being estimated through the epidemic’s first wave,” according to the institute.
The University of Washington researchers predict New York will see almost 24,000 deaths from the pandemic. More than 17,500 people have already died in New York City alone. Massachusetts, the model predicts, will be the second hardest hit state and could see about 5,500 deaths.
This story was originally published April 28, 2020 at 10:11 AM with the headline "Coronavirus death toll projections increase. Here’s why, according to health officials."
