Who will win Oscar? Here are the chances of the top nominees

“La La Land” has the most nominations, but does that mean it will clean up at the Academy Awards ceremony Feb. 26? Here are the chances of the nine best picture nominees.

“La La Land”

This musical romance earned a record-tying 14 nominations, including best picture, director, actress (Emma Stone) and actor (Ryan Gosling). Hollywood loves a Hollywood tale, but is it too frothy to claim the top prize?

“Moonlight”

This coming-of-age drama has drawn only $16 million at the box office, but it could make a big splash on Oscar night if enough voters actually see it. With eight nominations, it’s a strong contender for best picture, and Mahershala Ali is a front-runner for supporting actor.

“Arrival”

This aliens tale has eight nominations, including best picture, director and adapted screenplay, but Oscar doesn’t really care for sci-fi. Any wins would be in sound editing and other technical categories.

“Manchester by the Sea”

The film has six big nominations and could win in several categories, including best picture, actor (Casey Affleck), supporting actress (Michelle Williams) and director (Kenneth Lonergan).

“Hacksaw Ridge”

Mel Gibson’s bloody World War II saga received six nominations, including picture, director and actor (Andrew Garfield). Though it appeals to the large voting bloc of older academy voters, it’s not a contender to win.

“Lion”

This true story of an Indian man searching for his birth parents has six nominations, including picture and supporting actor (Dev Patel), but is not seen as a big factor come Oscar night.

“Fences”

Denzel Washington has stiff competition for best actor, but Viola Davis, who plays his long-suffering wife, has a good shot at a supporting actress win. “Fences” was also nominated for best picture and adapted screenplay.

“Hell or High Water”

This modern Western has four nominations, including best picture and supporting actor (Jeff Bridges), but it might be shooting blanks on Oscar night.

“Hidden Figures”

This feel-good, space-age civil rights story is up for best picture, supporting actress (Octavia Spencer) and adapted screenplay, but, as they say in Hollywood, sometimes you’re just lucky to be nominated.

This story was originally published January 24, 2017 at 3:01 PM with the headline "Who will win Oscar? Here are the chances of the top nominees."