Parson campaigns on falling COVID-19 death rate. But more Missourians are dying now

As Gov. Mike Parson campaigns across Missouri to defend his widely criticized handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and asks voters to grant him a full term, he has promoted an eye-catching statistic that suggests his administration has tamed the deadly virus.

“In April, when our death rate was at 8 percent – close to 8 percent – today, it is at 0.7,” Parson said at last Friday’s gubernatorial debate. He also cited the data while speaking to reporters last week.

But Parson’s numbers are highly misleading without key context. They are almost certainly driven in large measure by an increase in testing conducted since April. Fewer tests means fewer reported cases. And a higher death rate.

In fact, more Missourians have died from COVID-19 in recent months than early in the pandemic. Seven months since the state’s first virus death, more people have been reported dead in the last three-and-a-half months than in the first three-and-a-half-months: 1,422 compared to 998.

Last month, 478 people died from the virus compared to 448 in April, according to data from the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services (MDHSS) that was used to calculate the death rate.

On Friday, the day of the debate, Missouri reported 136 deaths -- the largest single-day toll since the start of the pandemic. At least 2,420 people have died and more than 140,000 cases have been reported since March.

A spokeswoman for Missouri DHSS told the Associated Press that 125 of the newly reported deaths happened in September, 10 were in August and one in July.

Additionally, more Missourians are hospitalized with the virus now than at any previous point. Current hospitalizations – often a precursor to additional deaths -- hit 1,344 on Oct. 8, the highest number recorded so far, according to the COVID Tracking Project. Hospitalizations have been on an upward trajectory since mid-June after falling since mid-April.

Parson’s approach to the coronavirus is a critical campaign issue. His Democratic opponent, State Auditor Nicole Galloway, is highly critical of the Republican governor’s refusal to issue a statewide mask mandate and his decision to let local governments make most decisions about restrictions and safety precautions.

“We need a complete reset on our coronavirus strategy,” Galloway said Friday.

Parson has grown more aggressive in defending his pandemic response as Election Day nears. His campaign’s first TV ad focused on how he has helped hospitals, likening him to a quarterback leading his team.

During last week’s debate, with COVID-19 hospitalizations at record levels, Parson said “we could build hospitals in this state in 10 to 11 days.”

“We’ve took a balanced approach from day one,” Parson said. He also said the state is “on the right track” in its fight against the virus.

Parson’s campaign didn’t answer a question Wednesday about whether the death rate accurately depicts the state’s COVID-19 situation.

“The mortality rate of those who tested positive for COVID-19 have dropped dramatically,” Parson campaign manager Steele Shipley said in a statement.

Parson drew the COVID-19 death rate from statistics produced by the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services. Agency spokeswoman Lisa Cox provided The Star with two charts plotting death rates.

One shows the death rate during each month of the pandemic. The chart records a death rate of 7.7 percent in April and 0.8 percent in September – in line with Parson’s claim.

The second chart, which shows the cumulative death rate over time, is less dramatic. The rate peaks in April at 6.3 percent before falling to 1.6 percent in September.

“You can imagine that measure can change greatly over time, as the rate of testing changes, for example. It can also change as the treatments roll out and decrease deaths, although I would conjecture that testing drives the measure much more than treatment,” Julie Swann, a North Carolina State University professor who has worked with the CDC, wrote in an email.

Missouri, like other states, has benefited from advancements in treatments for the sickest COVID-19 patients. Drugs, such as Remdesivir, and steroids have been helpful in assisting hospitalized patients.

But testing has also ramped up dramatically in Missouri. Data from the COVID-19 Tracking Project shows that in April and May, the 7-day rolling average for new tests sat well below 100 per day per 100,000 people. Since early July, the average has rarely dipped below 200.

Limited testing in the early days of pandemic almost certainly means cases went undetected, leading to a higher death rate early on.

Swann said estimating true mortality for the virus is difficult, since cases confirmed by a lab don’t represent all cases. She said that based on other countries, her best estimate is that the true rate is a little less than 0.5 percent, meaning that one death occurs in every 200 cases.

In Missouri, 2,422 people have died. Using that figure, Swann’s estimate suggests the true number of total cases in the state is potentially more than 484,000.

“Your lab-confirmed cases are showing as 150,496,” Swann wrote. “So just using lab-confirmed cases you are likely missing a good number of the actual cases.”

This story was originally published October 15, 2020 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Parson campaigns on falling COVID-19 death rate. But more Missourians are dying now."