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Can the Chiefs win seven games? Analyzing Vegas’ over-under number

In case you missed it, Las Vegas has set the over-under for wins this year for the 32 NFL teams, and for the Chiefs it’s seven victories, making that one a tough call.

It’s tempting to take the over. I think we can all agree the Chiefs have better talent than their 2-14 record from last season. I think we probably agree that the Chiefs will get better coaching from Andy Reid and his staff than they did from Romeo Crennel and his. I think we agree the Chiefs will get better quarterback play from Alex Smith than they did from either Matt Cassel or Brady Quinn. I think we agree the first month of their schedule is conducive to getting off to a relatively fast start.

So what’s holding us back from taking the over? For one, I think it’s going to take a new coaching staff some time to put everything together. In 2001, with a new staff headed by Dick Vermeil, the Chiefs were better coached but still began that season at 1-6 before they figured out some things. And the Chiefs have recently been slow starters, opening seasons since 2006 0-2, 0-2, 0-3, 0-5, 3-0, 0-3 and last year 0-2.

At 6½ I’d take the over, at 7½ the under. But seven, as I said, is a tough call. Going through their schedule, I see wins against Jacksonville, Dallas, Oakland, Cleveland, Buffalo, San Diego and Oakland again. I’ll also say the Chiefs will find another game (Giants? Texans? Colts) and get to eight wins. I’m just not very confident about that.

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