The free-agent market is now open and speculation on which players will sign with which teams has begun. Jim Duquette, former Mets GM and current MLB.com columnist, has predicted that the Royals will resign Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.
That would be awesome; I already know those guys and wouldn’t have to introduce myself to their replacements.
So if Jim Duquette is right, it would be very good for the Royals and their fans, but especially good for me.
On the other hand…
It’s hard to predict the future, but we keep on trying
When Johnny Cueto became a free agent after the 2015 season, the SB Nation mulled over the possibility of him signing with several teams — including the Giants — but predicted he would wind up with the Twins. They also predicted Ben Zobrist would go to the Dodgers, Jeff Samardzija would wind up with the Marlins and David Price would go to the Cubs.
And SB Nation wasn’t alone.
I started with SB Nation, but it didn’t take long to find other 2015 free-agent predictions gone wrong:
MLB Trade Rumors had Jason Heyward going to the Yankees, Chris Davis going to the Cardinals, Yoenis Cespedes headed to the Angels, and Jordan Zimmermann signing with the Blue Jays. They actually got Alex Gordon right, predicting he would stay with Royals, but were wrong about the size of his contract.
Make enough predictions and some are bound to pay off.
But whether it’s baseball free agents, the number of games a team will win in the upcoming season or which way the stock market will move, it’s hard to predict the future.
We usually know what they want us to know
I hope Duquette is right about Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas and wrong about Lorenzo Cain and Jason Vargas. (He also predicted Cain would go the Giants and Vargas would wind up with the Orioles.) But no matter what anyone predicts, odds are it won’t have much to do with what actually happens.
At this time of year I take most of what I hear with a grain of salt and would advise you to do the same.