For Pete's Sake

ESPN writer surprised his simulation shows Royals have chance to win World Series

Royals win first series of the season after 4-2 victory over Tigers

The Kansas City Royals won 4-2 over the Detroit Tigers on May 6, 2018 and with that recorded their first series win of the season, taking 3 of 4. Jakob Junis pitched into the eighth inning.
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The Kansas City Royals won 4-2 over the Detroit Tigers on May 6, 2018 and with that recorded their first series win of the season, taking 3 of 4. Jakob Junis pitched into the eighth inning.

Everyone get that "Dumb and Dumber" clip ready.

ESPN's Bradford Doolittle updated his MLB stock watch simulations for the rest of the Major League Baseball season, and six teams have zero chance of winning the World Series.

You may be surprised to learn the Royals, fresh off their first series win of the season, are not one of those six teams.

That's right, the Orioles, Padres, Rangers, White Sox, Reds and Marlins all have a 0 percent championship probability, according to Doolittle, a former Kansas City Star writer.

Unfortunately, the Royals' chance of winning the World Series is about as good as Lloyd Christmas getting a date with Mary Swanson (there's your "Dumb and Dumber" reference).

The Royals' probability of winning the World Series is 0.1 percent.

"That the Royals currently have a nonzero chance at a title is one of the more surprising results of my most recent run of simulations," Doolittle wrote. "We can't get carried away; it's a 0.1 percent chance, but nonzero is nonzero. It means there is a parallel universe out there somewhere where it will happen.

"Hopefully, the Kansas City of that realm is not as humid as the one in our world."

Doolittle's forecast show the Royals winning 65 games, which is down from 68.8 on opening day.

But the Royals' playoff probability is 3 percent.

It's worth noting that the AL Central as a whole has been dreadful this season. At 11-23, the Royals are just 6 games behind the division-leading Cleveland Indians. The combined record of the Central teams is 65-100. Central teams have a 31-66 (.320 winning percentage) against nondivision foes.

Perhaps that's propped up Doolittle's outlook for the Royals.

If you are interested, Baseball Prospectus gives the Royals a 0.2 percent chance of making the playoffs and 0 percent of winning the World Series. FanGraphs has those numbers at 0.1 percent and 0 percent.

You can read more of what Doolittle wrote about the Royals' offense and who they should trade here.

Here's a bit more from Doolittle on his stock watch: "With today's stock watch, for the first time this season we're using early results in conjunction with preseason expectations to group teams into those familiar buy, sell or hold buckets. Each team's current playoff odds from MLBPET — my projection and tracking system — are used to make these determinations."

Oh, and here is your obligatory "So you're telling me there's a chance" clip:

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